rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Will Soybeans Breakout?


Bookmark and Share

Blue Line Grain Express

Email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com or AgHedging@BlueLineFutures.com

You can also reach us at 312-278-0500

CORN (March)

Last Weeks Close: March corn futures traded of a cent lower last week after trading in a range of 5 cents (basically Fridays session). Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 4,000 contracts on Fridays session. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the weekly commitment of traders report was delayed until today.

Fundamentals: With December options off of the board we have moved our focus out to the March contract. The market has been and will continue to look towards South America for new fundamentals to move the market. Argentina is estimated to be about half way done with their planting which means short term weather changes could affect price action. There has been concerns that Argentina could turn drier over the coming months which could help provide support to the market.

Technicals: The market has been in a trend of lower highs and lower lows over the past three months which will keep the bears in control until we see a close above technical resistance. First technical resistance comes in at 361, this represents the 50-day moving average, an indicator we have not been able to stabilize above since July. Consecutive closes above could encourage short covering from the funds who have a near record net short position (we will get an updated look at where the funds stand in todays Commitment of Traders report). On the support side of things, 348 is the line in the sand we are watching. This held as support on the 16th and 17th, a break and close below could open the door to another leg lower.

Bearish

Resistance: 361***, 367-369 **, 373 -375****

Support: 348 **, 334-335 ***, 323-325 **

SOYBEANS (January)

Last Weeks Close: January soybeans closed a cent higher on the week, trading in a range of 16 cents. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 3,500 contracts on Fridays abbreviated session. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the weekly Commitment of Traders report will be released today.

Fundamentals: Attention of market participants has shifted towards developments in South America, particularly in Brazil and Argentina. Argentina is estimated to be 34% complete with their planting. Talks of La Nina developing over the next few months could mean problems and therefore premium in the market, this will need to be monitored closely going forward. As of this past weekend, there was estimated to be a 70% chance. Brazil is estimated to be 84% planted, this is basically on pace with last years 83% for the same time.

Technicals: The market has made a strong recovery over the past two weeks and is right back at the top end of the recent range and our resistance pocket which comes in from 999-1004 . If the bulls can achieve a close above, we could see funds extend their net long position and press prices towards 1021 . On the support side of things, we see 983 -984 , this pocket represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the 50% retracement from the June lows to the July highs. If the market fails to breakout and breaks down below first support, we could see long liquidation back towards 968 .

Bias: Neutral/bullish

Resistance: 999-1004 ***, 1014**, 1021 ****

Support: 983 -984 ***, 968 ****, 957-963 ****

WHEAT (March)

Last Weeks Close: During the shortened week, March wheat futures traded in a 14-cent range with prices ending the week 10 cents cheaper than the previous. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 4,500 contracts on Friday. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the weekly Commitment of Traders report will be released today.

Fundamentals: Fundamentals have not changed much over the past few weeks which keeps the bears in control of news. Ample global supply and lack of demand continues to be a burden on bulls in the market. We will need to start seeing a fundamental shift in the supply and demand functions, we do not see that being an imminent threat to the shorts. We will be watching the USD closely, if the USD does fail to gain momentum we could see that help out exports, this is a reach for a silver lining.

Technicals: The market has been making lower highs and lower lows for several months now which keeps the bears in control. First technical resistance comes in from 445-447. A close above could encourage short covering towards the 50-day moving average at 452 , an indicator we have not closed above since July. We feel these are levels you will want to sell against with a limited risk strategy just above. On the support side of things, it is tough to navigate at contract lows, but we would not be surprised to see the market make a run towards the $3 handle.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 445-447****, 452 **, 478-479****

Support: 422 **, 412 ***, 399-402 ****, 390-392 **

Email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com or AgHedging@BlueLineFutures.com

You can also reach us at 312-278-0500

Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures

Follow us on Facebook:Blue Line Futures Facebook page

Subscribe to our YouTube channel:Blue Line Futures YouTube channel


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2018 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Legal  •   Privacy Statement