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Tradable Events this Week

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Tradable Events this Week

Blue Line Futures

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1 1. Powell/Yellen

The next chapter of the Federal Reserve comes into focus this week with Jerome Powells confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. The Dollar Index has been under pressure since Wednesdays FOMC Minutes. Despite a December hike expected, the take away from last week was a very gradual pace of raising rates moving forward. This will be the first time that we get insight into how Powell plans on running the Fed and the Dollar trade will be in our crosshairs. Current Fed Chair Yellen follows him on Wednesday and testifies before congress on the state of the U.S economy. If we get more of the same from the two of them, weakness in the Dollar could have just started.

2. 2. OPEC

The all-awaited OPEC meeting is this Thursday and Crude Oil is trading at the highest level in two years. Traders have piled into Crude, front-running the expected extension of production cuts. The wild card remains Russia, but they did say on Friday that they are in support of an extension. By all means, if no extension is reached on Thursday, Crude will sell off quickly. We have been very bullish ahead of this meeting and believe that this is shaping up to be a buy the rumor, sell the fact event. The Commitment of Traders is due out on Monday because of the holiday. Last weeks read showed the largest net-long position since February. We believe this position has continued to expand, but if everyone has already bought, we will need more bullish news out of this meeting to attract fresh buying. We will look for an opportunity to position short this week. Call us at 312-278-0500 to discuss possible option strategies.

3.3. Inflation data

On Thursday we get the October PCE Price Index read. Lagging inflation is working to slow down the pace at which the Fed looks to hike rates next year. Janet Yellens comments last week and Wednesdays FOMC Minutes expressed a growing concern that rate hikes have directly halted inflation. Furthermore, we began to see a tectonic shift in central bank expectations this spring; the Fed is now not the only central bank tightening policy. Also on Thursday is CPI data out of the Eurozone. These dueling reads should already add to a volatile Euro-USD trade.

4.4. All-time highs

The S&P finished the week at a new all-time high. With strong Black Friday sales as well as expectations for Cyber Monday coupled with accommodative central bank policy and likeliness of tax-reform the Santa Clause rally could have already begun. Some could argue that last years Santa Clause rally still hasnt stopped. With the S&P settling the week above resistance at 2594.50-2596 this opens the door to our next upside target of 2633.

5. 5. Commitment of Traders

For the second week in a row, we must wait until Monday to see the latest CoT report. It is important to remember that the report only takes in data through Tuesday. Despite the delay, we watch this report very closely as it helps dictate our trade ideas. Right now, we are watching the positioning on Crude Oil, Japanese Yen and Corn the most closely.

6.6. Chinese Manufacturing

The November Manufacturing PMI read is due out Wednesday evening. Last week was a volatile one for major Chinese indices and their 10-year treasury retreated below 4% on Friday but remains at the highest level in almost four years. We will be watching the base metals closely on this number. In particular, Palladium which has been trading at the highest level since the first quarter of 2001. Price action in Palladium rejected $1000 once again on Friday. A miss for the second month in a row on Chinese Manufacturing could begin to put some pressure on the base metal camp.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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