rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Can oil and gold continue higher?


Bookmark and Share

Blue Line Express

Be sure to check out our website for updated analysis and our daily Midday Market Minute (video): BlueLineFutures.com

If you are reading this post from Barchart.com the links do not work, we encourage you to visit our site where you can find updated videos and research under the research section. www.BlueLineFutures.com

E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2596.25 after trading to an all-time high of 2600.50

Fundamentals:Equity markets accelerated higher yesterday, and momentum carried over from overseas with a strong showing in Asia that centered on Hong Kong. The picture in the U.S remains the rosiest and cash is flooding in after solid earnings and the hope of better growth on the heels of tax-reform. Despite the yield curve giving a different sentiment. Speaking of tax-reform, the front has been a little quieter this week and Senators rolled out a releaseon Mondaynight and are expected to votewithin 10 days; with this price action it is clear that investors do not doubt something with get done and money managers dont want to miss out on their bonus. Fed Chair Yellen spoke last night and gave a more dovish rhetoric than of late, being cautious about raising rates too quickly and the potential of halting inflation even further. Today will be a crucial day ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday with Durable Goods due at7:30 am CTand the FOMC Minutes from the November 1st meeting due at1:00 pm CT. Jobless Claims are pushed up and also due at7:30while the second and less volatile read on Michigan Consumer data is due at9:00.

Technicals:Yesterdays close was at 2596.25 and much of the price action throughout the session was above this resistance which is bullish. We have a minor level at 2600 but ultimately a continued close above 2594.50-2596 should signal the next bull leg to 2633.50. A close below this level will open the door for a consolidation back to 2583-2585.75.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 2600*, 2616**, 2633.50***

Pivot - 2594.50-2596

Support 2583-2585.75**,2576.50**, 2567.75*, 2561.75-2562.25**, 2555*, 2539.25-2543***

Crude Oil (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 56.83

Fundamentals:Oil is surging this morning after yesterdays API report, which relative to last weeks reverted back to the mean and showed a draw of 6.356 mb. However, this is not the only news driving prices higher as TransCanada announced last night that it will deliver 85% less Oil to the U.S through the end of November. Combine this with the OPEC meeting next week and we have a clear path of least resistance higher. Crude is now at the highest level since July 1st, 2015. Official inventory data from the EIA is due out today at9:30 am CTand expectations are for -1.545 mb Crude, -1.164 mb Distillates and +.737 mb Gasoline. The headline read will be key today but not against these expectations, we must see a draw in Crude of at least double these expectations to keep the bulls hungry after last nights huge API read. Baker Hughes data is due out atnoontoday due to the holiday.

Technicals:This is the melt-up effect to the recent swing highs we discussed on a breakout above key resistance at 56.71-56.94. Price action is now testing the 57.92-58.14 swing highs, but our upside target remains 58.97 and we want to see this before the end of the week. Today would be the sixth session with a higher low since 55 traded in the January contract. Previous resistance is now support at 56.71-56.94 and a close below here on the session will encourage further liquidation in the immediate term.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 57.92-58.14**, 58.97***, 59.96***, 62.58**

Support 56.71-56.94**, 56.32**, 55.74**, 55.00-55.25***, 54.36-54.65**, 53.96**, 53.11-53.27***


Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1281.7

Fundamentals:The Dollar backed off fromMondaysstrength and has settled in quite a bit ahead of today. Gold has done the same, consolidating back into the middle of its range fromFridayshigh andMondayslow ahead of Durable Goods and Jobless Claims due out at7:30 am CT. The second and less volatile read on Michigan Consumer data is due at9:00. The FOMC Minutes from the November 1st meeting are due at1:00 pm CT. Fed Chair Yellen spoke last night with what was somewhat of a dovish rhetoric in advising against raising rates too quick and subduing inflation even further. Decembers hike is nearly a forgone conclusion and todays Minutes will give more of an insight on the rhetoric that will be used at that meeting. Especially on the heels of a more dovish rhetoric not only from Yellen. We like prospects of Gold in the near term.

Technicals:Price action traded into resistance yesterday at 1281.1-1283.2, this level has shifted slightly and now comes in at 1283.8-1285.8. Todays session high is 1286 and a close above resistance is key, and we now have minor resistance above there at 1288.5. Three-star resistance now comes in at 1298.4-1300.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 1281.1-1285.6**, 1288.5*, 1293.7**, 1298.4-1300***, 1308.4-1312.6**

Support 1271.9***, 1267-1268**, 1262.8-1263.8**,1243.6*

Natural Gas (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 3.017

Fundamentals:Storage data is due out today at11:00 am CTand estimates are for a draw of 51 bcf. Last year at this time there was a build of +2 bcf and todays estimates double the five-year moving average. Weather has been mild on the east coast with New York City in the 50s for the most part. This has put pressure on prices in the near term. We maintain that $3 is too cheap and no need to look further than last years sharp turn in higher in December when this week showed a build of 2 bcf.

Technicals:This is go-time and price action testing major three-star support at the gap from two weeks ago. The bulls need to show up to the party today and reverse the losses on the week while the bears look to achieve a close below here to signal a near-term failure. The high of the week comes in at 3.089 while resistance from a swing high last week aligns with the 50 and 100 day moving averages to bring resistance above there.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 3.046*, 3.089**, 3.112-3.153**, 3.198-3.22***, 3.279*, 3.353***, 3.55**, 3.67**

Support 2.984-2.998***, 2.847-2.861**, 2.753-2.7565***, 2.486-2.522****

10-year (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 12422

Fundamentals:The yield curve got run over by a truck yesterday, as it continues to flatten. Prices of 2s and 5s finished in the red while 30s finished in the green. Fed Chair Yellen advised against raising rates too soon in a speech last night and she does not seem to be the only member who has begun to show signs of concern and/or a dovish rhetoric. Todays Minutes due at1:00 pm CTshould be interesting, not because of the December hike but because of the rhetoric that we will get with it. Durable Goods and Jobless Claims are due at7:30 am CTand the second read on Michigan data is due at9:00.

Technicals:Price action has stayed above key support at 12416-12419 as we await data this morning and Minutes this afternoon. By the end of the day we could see the case for stepping into the long side but are awaiting more clarity. Only a close above 12431-12515 will turn us outright bullish in the near term.

Bias:Neutral

Resistance 12431-125015**, 12507*, 12519**, 125255**, 12601**, 12615***

Support 12416-12419**, 12400**, 12222-12229***

Sign up for a FREE trial of the Morning Express!

Email Bill@BlueLineFutures.com

You can also reach us at 312-278-0500

Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures

Follow us on Facebook:Blue Line Futures Facebook page

Subscribe to our YouTube channel:Blue Line Futures YouTube channel

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2018 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Legal  •   Privacy Statement