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Wheat Market - Just My Opinion

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The unexpected downgrade in the winter wheat ratings allowed wheat prices to stand in against recent lows on Tuesday. Prices ran a shade easier in the Monday night trade and tried to break down in the early Tuesday morning trade. Once it was realized the attempt to sell off wasnt going anywhere short covering ensued. The news wires were running a story about radioactivity being found in the Ural Mountains and the trade reacting to it (really!!!). A similar story ran last week but that time the findings were a radioactive cloud over Europe. A common word in the news recently is groping. I think wheat traders were groping on Tuesday.

Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. Not much happens with SRW for export. HRW for export continues to surge higher but that I believe is a protein play as export requires higher protein vs. deliverable supplies. Chgo spreads ran noticeably softer vs. the new crop. Not much happens with KC spreads.

After the last number of days of flip-flopping back and forth a case can be that the US wheat futures markets are developing into trading range affairs. Going back to October 27th March Chgo wheat has traded in a 16 cent range and March KC in a 20 cent range. I have to think buy stops are developing above the highs but Im not so sure about sell stops on the low side as I dont see anyone long. The lack of market making export business can be cited as resistance while the size of the spec short can be called support.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/22

March Chgo Wheat: $4.38 - $4.50

March KC Wheat: $4.34 - $4.44

Trading Futures is Risky - never risk more vs. what you can afford to lose

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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