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Soybean Market - Just My Opinion

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Once again the soybean gets caught between the shifting product markets. On Monday it was lower bean oil vs. higher bean meal; today it was higher bean oil vs. lower bean meal. The trade continues to talk about a dry bias in Argentina forecasts suggest it may not last too long. The announced soybean sale to China was nice to see since the last announced sale was October 27th.

Most interior cash soybean markets are quiet. The Ohio River did come in 7 cents higher but that was the only noticeable change. The Gulf basis continues to show a leaking lower bias. Soybean spreads were mostly steady on the day; only fractional changes were noted. Offers to sell cash meal remain depressed. Meal spreads ran mostly steady on the day. Next Thursday is first notice day for product deliveries. As of this writing I think they will be light. Required protein meal remains tough to come by while domestic bio-diesel demand should work to limit bean oil deliveries.

From a historical point of view the soybean market tends to have a higher bias immediately before and right after the Thanksgiving Holiday. Will this tendency be with us this year?

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/22

Jan Beans: $9.90 - $10.10

Jan Meal; $317.0 - $325.0

Jan Bn Oil: $33.90 - $34.60

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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