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FX Rundown

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FX Rundown

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Euro (December)

Session close:Finished down more than half a penny.

Fundamentals:The Euro gapped lower on the open last night as German Chancellor Angela Merkel was unable to form a coalition government. The failure to form a coalition would lead to a new vote and Merkel followed with comments today that she would prefer such rather than conceding in negotiations. Right now, with the possibility of a re-vote, we have backed away from our immediate and long term bullish thesis until we get more clarity. The Eurozone as a whole has shown strong growth prospects and outside of this issue, we expect the Euro to strengthen. However, we also believe that todays weakness is also due to factors other than Germany; with the Dollar up, Gold and treasuries got clobbered. ECB President Mario Draghi commented today on lagging inflation and ultimately his comments coupled with Merkels renewed selling pressure. ECB member Coeure speakstomorrowat9:00 am CT. Fed Chair Yellen, who gave here letter of resignation to leave the board once Powell is sworn in, speakstomorrownight at5:00 pm CT.

Technicals:Todays price action is weak. The market gapped lower on the open last night and traded higher to cover the gap in the early hours of this morning, however, the failure to hold the recovery and then trade back to session lows opens the door for lower price action throughtomorrow. Major three-star support comes in at 1.1714-1.1730 and this aligns the 50% retracement with the trend line in which price action broke out above (now coming in below at support). A close below here will spark further selling. We are now Neutral as we are looking for more clarity. Overhead resistance aligns with the 100-day moving average and todays swing high.


Resistance 1.1804-1.1826**, 1.1866-1.18815**, 1.1921-1.1934***, 1.1991*, 1.2019**

Support 1.1714-1.1730***, 1.1694**, 1.1650**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

Yen (December)

Session close:Lost nearly half a penny on the session.

Fundamentals:The risk-on trade today put pressure on all safe haven assets with Gold taking the biggest hit. Today was a disappointing session for Yen bulls asFridayssession showed strong prospects of a breakout coming on the heels of hawkish comments from a BoJ council member. Overall, it is surprising to see these safe haven assets take such a hit on the heels of the political news out of Germany which leads to us crediting Dollar strength for shaping up the session. All Industries Activity data is due out at10:30 pm CTtonight.

Technicals:We remain Bullish, but our approach has been neutralized slightly in the near term after a session like today.Fridayshigh of .8944 and close of .8928 was very constructive but did fall short of major three-star resistance at .8971-.8980. Todays high edged this out at .8948 and pins a .382 retracement at .8865, a level that we will watch closely on a closing basis in order for this short-lived uptrend to stay intact.


Resistance - .8828**, .8971-.8980***, .9021-.9045***

Support - .8865**, .8800-.8828***, .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***

Aussie (December)

Session close:Lost about 20 ticks on the session

Fundamentals:Today was an inside trading day for the Aussie, though it lost ground due to U.S Dollar strength. Traders stand by for the release of the RBA Minutes at6:30 pm CT. RBA Governor Lowe speaks at3:05 am CTtomorrowmorning.

Technicals:Relative Strength is almost in oversold territory a 30. Price action has clung to the .7550 level in a quiet session today ahead of the RBA Minutes.


Resistance - .7622**, .7678***, .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***

Support - .7550**, .7390****

Canadian (December)

Session close:Settled down more than a quarter of a penny on the session.

Fundamentals:The Canadian lost ground today on Crude Oil weakness but also as the U.S Dollar strengthened. NAFTA remains a headwind and talks continue today with Mexico and Canada confronting U.S auto demands. Wholesale Inventories are due out of Canadatomorrowat7:30 am CT. We are eyeing Retail Saleson Thursdayas a key number.

Technicals:Price action bled a little lower into the electronic session close and we now have first key support coming in at .7790-.7803. Major three-star support now aligns with the 200-day moving average and recent swing lows at .7727-.7745; a close below here will signal a complete failure and open the door to further selling. We remain very upbeat on the Canadian and its slow grind lower has been a constructive correction. The bulls want to achieve a close back above .7851.7856 in order to neutralize weakness and encourage the buyers to step back in.


Resistance .7851-.7856**, .7954***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7790-.7803***, .7727-.7745**, .7671**, 7550***

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Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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