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Wheat Market - Just My Opinion


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It seems the adage continues to be When in doubt about being long corn and/or soybeans make sure you sell some wheat against it to be safe. Supportive fundamental type news remains lacking for the US wheat markets. Rallies come when the trade feels the spec istoo short. That was not the case on Monday given the short covering we saw Wednesday through Friday of last week. Todays strength in the US Dollar was cited as an excuse for the market to sell off as well as inter-market spreading against corn and soybeans. March Chgo wheat came within 2 cents of its contract lows while March KC wheat came within half cent of its contract low.

Not much happens with interior cash wheat prices. The export market for SRW continues to be quiet while the export market for HRW continues to firm. Chgo spreads weakened fractionally. As of this writing it looks like the VSR for Chgo wheat will stay at its current 11 cents per month. The strength in the HRW export market has done little to influence the KC spreads as HRW export calls for 12% protein while 10.5 to 11% protein is deliverable.

Flat price wheat is hanging by a thread from pumping out new contract lows. Whats out there to keep it from happening? Its dry in the central southern Plains. The competitions recently planted wheat looks good. Argentina is in the midst of their harvest. As of this writing Ill say new contract lows continue to be in the cards.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/21

March Chgo Wheat: $4.33 (?) - $4.44

March KC Wheat: $4.30 (?) - $4.40

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About the author


Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.

 

 

Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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