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November 20, 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher due to the belief that the global economy strengthening.

The 9:00 central time October leading indicators report is expected to show a .6% increase.

Futures are higher in spite of weaker crude oil prices.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is firmer and the euro currency is lower after Chancellor Angela Merkel's attempts to form a government in Germany collapsed leaving the largest economy in the euro zone politically unsettled almost two months after its general election.

The collapse of coalition talks in Germany adds to the political turmoil in the region, especially after Spain recently cracked down Catalonia after the region of Spain declared independence from Spain.

The euro zone economy is on track for its strongest year since 2007, in spite of the political turmoil, although economic growth has slowed slightly in the third quarter.

The British pound is higher as a result of news this weekend that progress was made in the Brexit negotiations, which was interpreted as slightly friendly for the pound.

The U.K. will submit proposals on how to exit the European Union before a European Union summit next month.

The Japanese yen is lower on news that Japanese exports increased 14% in October from a year ago, which was lower than the 15.5% advance that was anticipated by economists.

The Australian dollar is lower after the International Monetary Fund said it expects Australian interest rates could remain at record lows for another year.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is over 98%.

I am totally on board with the consensus view that the FOMC will hike rates next month. However, I expect only two fed funds rate increases in 2018, while some analysts are predicting three or more rate hikes in 2018.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

December 17 S&P 500

Support 2563.00 Resistance 2585.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 93.520 Resistance 93.970

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.17210 Resistance 1.18260

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88030 Resistance .89570

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .78080 Resistance .78570

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7532 Resistance .7588

December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 153^0 Resistance 154^16

December 17 Gold

Support 1265.0 Resistance 1297.0

December 17 Copper

Support 3.0400 Resistance 3.0850

January 17 Crude Oil

Support 56.01 Resistance 57.03

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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