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Morning Softs Report 11/17/17

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ADMIS Research Bulletin
Subject: market talk
inform est US 2018 corn acres near 91.4 mil vs 90.4 last year. Crop of 14,629 mil bu vs 14,578 ly
inform est US 2018 soybean acres near 89.6 mil vs 90.2 last year. Crop of 4,397 mil bu vs 4,425 ly
Inform est US 2018 wheat acres near 45.6 mil vs 46.0 last year. Crop of 1,900 mil bu vs 1,741 ly
inform est US 2018 rice acres near 2.575 mil vs 2.487 last year. Crop of 193.3 vs 178.4 ly
Inform est US 2018 cotton acres near 12.5 mil vs 12.6 last year. Crop of 20.220 mil bales vs 21.377 ly

General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in response to very strong weekly export sales. The report gave the market Bulls a shot in the arm at a time when the futures market could be bottoming. The chart patterns suggest that futures could move higher over time. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates. Futures had a muted reaction to the USDA reports last week and held to the range seen for the last few weeks. Farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right now. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry weather today and light showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Saturday, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above and below normal. The USDA average price is now 67.33 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,991 bales, from 47,970 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6890, 6860, and 6800 December, with resistance of 6950, 6970, and 7000 December.

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again on what appeared to be speculative buying. The market is starting to turn trends up again on the charts and there is more talk that USDA is still over estimating the orange crop in Florida. Production is now about two-thirds of what was expected at the start of the growing season. The demand side remains weak. Brazil weather has improved as groves are now getting rains, but suffered from drought at flowering time. It was also very hot and it is possible that production from Sao Paulo state will be less. Temperatures have moderated in Sao Paulo and there has been better rain, but there is some talk that hot and dry and stressful conditions ould return in the near future.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 29 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 29 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 January. Support is at 160.00, 157.00, and 155.00 January, with resistance at 169.00, 170.00, and 175.00 January.

General Comments: Futures were little changed in quiet trading yesterday. Many Arabica traders are expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. There is plenty of rain now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. New York futures could be forming a bottom at this time.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.910 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier weather through Saturday and showers and storms on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should average near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 121.00 December, and resistance is at 129.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1860 and 1890 January. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1770 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London . The market has found some buying interest due to less production in Brazil and on ideas that speculators are too short in the market. There has not been much other news to push prices one way or another. Chart patterns are bullish, however, and this is forcing the short to cover these positions. Brazil features reduced sugarcane crush and continued emphasis on ethanol production and reduced Sugar production as it moves to cover domestic demand at the expense of exports. Trends are turning up in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market. There have been no big demand reports, and the lack of demand against ideas of big world production are keeping the market in a fundamentally bearish mode. Even so, the charts in both New York and London imply that higher prices are coming.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature drier weather through Saturday and showers and storms starting on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1530, 1560, and 1590 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1580, and 1620 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 394.00 and 406.00 March. Support is at 386.00, 383.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 396.00, 399.00, and 405.00 March.

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and in London in consolidation trading. The charts show that a top has formed and that Cocoa futures could hit swing targets with further weakness in prices. Some talk of disease in crops in Ivory Coast has created much of the recent buying interest, but no news has been Heard to confirm the talk so the fundamental supply side issue faded. It has been unseasonably wet in parts of West Africa, so some diseases could be forming. Demand ideas are holding strong as processor margins have been great. World production ideas remain high.
Overnight News: A few isolated showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.842 million bags. ICE said that 57 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 57 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2080 March. Support is at 2110, 2100, and 2070 March, with resistance at 2150, 2180, and 2220 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1890 March. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 March, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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