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Wheat Market - Just My Opinion

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Thursday brought us lots of inter-market spreading among the US wheat varieties as well as inter-market spreading against other Ag contracts. The end result was Mpls gaining on Chgo and KC while KC and Chgo went nowhere fast. Weekly export sales were deemed okay but okay doesnt make a market. Earlier in the day Informa suggested wheat plantings for the 2018-19 marketing year will decline by about 375 K acres. Not much attention was given to this as the US is not much of a market force anymore in the global export trade.

Interior cash wheat markets as well as the export markets continue to be quiet. The big feature in the Chgo spread trade continues to be the back and forth of the nearby spreads as the VSR deadline for updating is fast approaching.

So is the wheat market going to move into a sideways mode or are we going to see another round of new lows? The recent price action suggests new lows. To get this market to stabilize will have to see prices above last weeks highs.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/17

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.16 (?) - $4.26

Dec KC Wheat: $4.13 (?) - $4.26

Trading Futures is Risky - never risk more than what you can afford to lose

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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