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Soybean Market - Just My Opinion

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Not much of trade in soybeans today; just an 8 cent range. What stood out was the complexs inability to show any follow through buying from Wednesdays rally. Weekly soybean export sales were at the low end of expectations. Soybean meal sales were nothing special. Bean oil sales were considered bearish especially in light of Wednesdays rally. Weather in SA for the time being appears conducive to crop progress/production. Informa is suggesting soybean acres for next year will decline by 600 K acres.

The interior soybean basis, for the most part, continues to show a steady to higher bias. I did see a couple of locations ease some from recent strength but these had been locations that have recently shown an aggressive stance for soybean origination. The Gulf is stable at best. Soybean spreads ran fractionally easier within the crop year. Old crop continues to have bearish look in relation to the new crop.

Soybean charts have a bearish look to them. The last couple of days of price action(upflagging) appear to be marking time before resuming the lower trend. Soybean meal is in a minor sideways but unable to distance itself from what I feel is sell stop territory. The 1 day rally in bean oil was stopped dead in its tracks at the low side of the up channel it broke down out of 3 days ago. Overall things are not looking too spiffy for the soybean complex.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/17

March Beans: $9.75 - $9.90

Dec Meal; $309.0 ($305.0) - $315.0

Dec Bn Oil: $34.00 - $34.90

Trading Futures is Risky - Never risk more than what you can afford to lose

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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