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Corn Market - Just My Opinion


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It was another quiet day grinding lower; just a 2 - 2 cent range. Weekly export sales were feeble based on expectations. Simply put the path of least resistance continues to be lower. So far I see nothing out there from a fundamental point of view that will turn the tide. Informa was out earlier in the day suggesting next years corn planted acres will increase by 1 million. Just what the market doesnt need. I think everyone will agree that the spec trade is probably too short but then again whats out there to challenge them. One of these days well come in to 1, 2, 3 cover your shorts. I wish I could say the flat price is oversold from a technical perspective but its really not. I cant advocate selling the market but so far there is nothing in the price action that would suggest it is ready for a turn.

Interior cash corn basis levels still show a steady to higher bias at most locations. The Gulf is mostly steady. Dec corn gains fractionally on March corn. March corn loses fractionally to its forward contracts. Old crop/new crop spreads (July/Dec) have been trading flat sideways for 1 months now barely moving from contract lows.

So whats it going to take to spark a short covering rally? Unexpected export sales for one. The weather turning foul in SA. How about a gap lower opening that might suggest exhaustion. Until that time, Eustice, until that time.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/17

Dec Corn: $3.34 - $3.42

March Corn: $3.47 - $3.55

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About the author


Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.

 

 

Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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