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Morning Grains Report 11/16/17


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DJ Analysts’ Estimates for November USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed November 1 105.7 105.0- 107.0
Placed in October 107.6 103.6- 113.1
Marketed in October 105.4 105.0- 106.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Nov 1 in Oct in Oct
Allendale Inc. 107.0 113.1 105.1
CoBank 105.7 106.6 105.4
HedgersEdge 105.3 105.9 106.1
Linn Group 105.0 103.6 105.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 105.4 105.8 105.5
NFC Markets 105.5 105.9 105.6
AgStrata LLC 105.7 112.4 105.3
Texas A&M Extension 106.2 109.0 105.3
U.S. Commodities 106.0 107.8 105.4

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 16
For the week ended Nov 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 489.3 30.0 16780.5 17671.2 5668.0 90.0
hrw 240.7 0.0 6508.9 7277.6 1989.1 7.4
srw 19.8 30.0 1556.0 1521.0 520.7 68.8
hrs 134.3 0.0 4686.5 5443.1 1794.2 12.3
white 94.5 0.0 3770.0 3018.4 1305.5 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 259.1 411.1 58.5 1.5
corn 949.5 5.0 20342.7 27646.2 14195.4 1004.0
soybeans 1104.8 72.1 32583.1 38471.6 15620.4 209.7
soy meal 163.1 6.4 4351.8 4375.8 3323.1 126.9
soy oil 2.7 0.0 186.4 353.0 105.3 0.0
upland cotton 506.7 0.2 9012.5 6397.5 7020.6 897.3
Pima cotton 18.1 0.0 421.2 388.7 356.6 19.7
sorghum 129.9 0.0 2210.0 2145.1 1500.9 0.0
barley 0.5 0.0 38.1 15.3 23.9 7.1
rice 30.8 0.0 1174.9 1463.7 505.5 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower in Chicago and a little lower in Minneapolis on concerns about an Egyptian court that Wheat with Ergot could not be imported. The move through demand for world Wheat into doubt, even though Egypt tendered again for more imports overnight. Wheat was the main mover to the downside as Corn and Soybeans posted gains for the day. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the Wheat offer and price. World estimates in general remain large and US offers will need to be low to take business. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower due to the fundamentals. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia. Prices might not improve much for the coming year as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal next week. The Canadian Prairies should see light Snow today and tomorrow. Mostly dry this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 408 December, with resistance at 427, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 427, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 617, 615, and 606 December, and resistance is at 632, 642, and 646 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher on apparent commercial buying. Commercials were buying to cover reported Iraq demand for 90,000 tons. The buying caught short speculators and they were buyers to cover positions. Futures trading had been slow and the cash market had been quiet, so the big commercial buying really moved the prices sharply higher. However, futures remain well below cash markets in much of the US right now. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm, while markets farther north have offered lower prices due to the futures weakness and are very quiet. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1223 January. Support is at 1191, 1167, and 1162 January, with resistance at 1212, 1215, and 1225 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher in consolidation trading. Some light volume speculative buying was seen. Oats closed lower. More and more traders expect a short covering rally in Corn. Speculators remain very short the market and futures are not likely to move much lower as there is good demand from the ethanol sector and producers are not selling. Basis levels have turned firmer due to these cash market conditions. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. The harvest could be delayed this week due to more rains and snows for parts of the Midwest. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis and futures price levels. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions as the rains have stopped for now and are not expected to return in the short-term. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields, but the impact is for later at this time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 333 December. Support is at 334, 331, and 328 December, and resistance is at 342, 344, and 348 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 265, 262, and 260 December, and resistance is at 273, 277, and 283 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on fund buying. Soybean Oil was the leader on the upside as demand for biofuels remains very strong and as no biofuels imports have been noted in the last month. Funds were buying even through demand ideas have ben weaker due to the potential for softer demand from China. There have been no new export sales announcements for several days now. Soybeans futures broke some moving averages on the way down on Monday and these technical points created increased fund selling again yesterday. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower were fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits. Some GMO Soybeans have made it into the human food chain, and this news has caused the government to slow the process until it can identify the problems. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to 60% planters in Brazil right now. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season. The NOPA crush was in line with trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 965 January. Support is at 968, 963, and 960 January, and resistance is at 982, 990, and 995 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 309.00 and 304.00 December. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3430, 3400, and 3390 December, with resistance at 3480, 3510, and 3540 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in line with Chicago. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was a little higher in sympathy with Soybean Oil in Chicago. There did not seem to be news for the rally.. Export data so far this month has been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 520.00, 527.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2710, 2690, and 2660 February, with resistance at 2780, 2820, and 2840 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 36 Dec 208 Dec 55 Dec 27-Jan 4-Dec
December 40 Dec 58 Mar 36 Jan
January 39 March 43 Mar 40 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November
December minus 25 Dec 70 Dec
January minus 20 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 15
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 462.60 dn 2.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 529.20 up 6.60
2 Can 516.20 up 6.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 539.20 up 6.60
2 Can 526.20 up 6.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 217.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 702.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 635.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,710 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 344.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1740)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 97,900 lots, or 3.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,621 3,633 3,606 3,624 3,616 3,621 5 86,038 309,964
Mar-18 – – – 3,650 3,650 3,650 0 0 34
May-18 3,752 3,761 3,743 3,756 3,751 3,753 2 11,808 72,050
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,815 3,828 3,813 3,824 3,814 3,818 4 50 1,586
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,888 3,888 3,880 3,880 3,877 3,884 7 4 240
Mar-19 – – – 3,880 3,880 3,880 0 0 2
May-19 – – – 3,892 3,881 3,892 11 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 354,370 lots, or 6.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,697 1,697 1,687 1,690 1,691 1,690 -1 268,986 853,496
Mar-18 1,706 1,706 1,704 1,705 1,707 1,705 -2 36 1,512
May-18 1,745 1,748 1,739 1,739 1,741 1,742 1 78,744 379,362
Jul-18 – – – 1,758 1,758 1,758 0 0 484
Sep-18 1,764 1,764 1,741 1,756 1,757 1,756 -1 6,504 58,984
Nov-18 1,780 1,780 1,761 1,769 1,780 1,767 -13 100 48
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,445,710 lots, or 40.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 2,885 2,885 2,836 2,884 2,840 2,881 41 96 1,570
Jan-18 2,835 2,869 2,827 2,861 2,825 2,848 23 995,346 1,427,806
Mar-18 2,820 2,844 2,792 2,830 2,821 2,810 -11 162 238
May-18 2,745 2,772 2,744 2,771 2,749 2,761 12 417,136 1,216,676
Jul-18 – – – 2,770 2,765 2,770 5 0 168
Aug-18 2,762 2,773 2,762 2,773 2,772 2,771 -1 20 136
Sep-18 2,759 2,779 2,755 2,776 2,761 2,769 8 32,946 121,826
Nov-18 2,765 2,769 2,765 2,769 2,759 2,767 8 4 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 317,686 lots, or 17.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,484 5,524 5,438 5,492 5,506 5,486 -20 219,568 268,052
Feb-18 – – – 5,578 5,598 5,578 -20 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,626 5,626 5,626 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,726 5,726 5,726 0 0 10
May-18 5,578 5,636 5,532 5,610 5,616 5,594 -22 94,544 257,892
Jun-18 5,572 5,620 5,572 5,620 5,732 5,596 -136 4 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,692 5,692 5,692 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,502 5,634 5,502 -132 0 2
Sep-18 5,510 5,560 5,478 5,536 5,542 5,528 -14 3,570 24,910
Oct-18 – – – 5,524 5,524 5,524 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 337,570 lots, or 20.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 5,982 5,982 5,804 5,900 5,998 5,894 -104 6 6
Jan-18 5,974 6,026 5,950 5,988 5,998 5,984 -14 240,148 651,274
Mar-18 6,030 6,030 6,006 6,006 6,068 6,018 -50 4 10
May-18 6,136 6,194 6,108 6,148 6,166 6,150 -16 95,008 321,924
Jul-18 – – – 6,306 6,306 6,306 0 0 2
Aug-18 6,194 6,194 6,194 6,194 6,320 6,194 -126 2 4
Sep-18 6,222 6,274 6,194 6,242 6,244 6,238 -6 2,402 13,928
Nov-18 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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