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Morning Grain Market Research


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I guess this would be referred to as a Freudian slip, but until this morning I did not realize just how anxious I am to see the completion of this calendar year. When I save the comments each day, I have already taken filing them dated 2018. By no means is this because I want to wish time away as certainly when you have reached beyond three score as I have, it seems to move entirely too fast to begin with, but when it comes to market opportunities, the next six weeks of holiday trade may not offer much. Yes, there should be potential for a short-covering bounce in the grains, which could be larger than many would anticipate, and the bean demand should keep that market interesting, but to really begin shifting market psychology, we are going to need a disruptive weather event somewhere in the world.

Be that as it may, here we are smack dab in the middle of November and the primary news of the morning would appear to be weekly export sales. For the week ending November 9th, we sold 949,500 MT or 38.39 million bushels of corn. In and of itself this is not a bad number but it is down 60% from the previous week (marketing year high) and 34% below the 4-week average. Top sales were made to Japan at 136.8k MT, followed by Indonesia with 105.8k and then South Korea at 73k. This brings the marketing YTD sales up to 801.89 million bushels and with the adjusted (increased) target of 1.95 billion, means we stand at 41% sold with 42 weeks left in the year. Beans sales were still above the million tonne mark with a total of 1,104,800 MT or 40.60 million bushels but this was still 5% below last week and 32% below the 4-week average. As you would expect, China is on the top of the list with 1,113,200 MT followed by the Netherlands with 163k MT and then Turkey with 132k. As you probably already noted this means there were some sizable reductions with the largest being 662k MT under unknown destinations. Marketing YTD we now stand just shy of 1.2 billion or 53% of the target. Do recognize that last week we set a marketing year high for wheat, which makes the 489,300 MT (17.98 mil.bu.) look a bit disappointing. This was 37% below last week and 7% under the 4-week average. The top purchasers was Japan with 136.8k MT follow by Indonesia with 105.8k and then South Korea at 73k. Marketing year to date we have reached 616.61 million bushels and with the increased target of 1 billion, we stand at 61.67% of the goal. Of course, here we have 29-weeks left in the marketing year which means we need to average 13.22 million per week moving forward.

NOPA released October crush numbers yesterday and it works out that we crushed 164.24 million bushels of beans, which is the 5thhighest ever and the largest ever for the month of October. While in itself seeing this kind of solid demand is positive new but the most interesting aspect may have been there news of the poor oil yield. Already this year, processors have been forced to lower the guaranteed protein content of meal and this latest report shows that oil yield came in at 11.54 pounds per bushel compared with 11.61 last year for the same month and is lowest monthly yield since November of 2015. Lower protein, lower oil content theoretically should translate in the greater demand throughout the year.

Overall, markets are rather uneventful this morning with grains mixed and soy soft. Macros are leaning a bit negative though with the dollar firm and energies weak.

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About the author


Dan Hueber is the General Manager of The Hueber Report.  Mr. Hueber literally grew up in the grain industry, and entered the commodity futures and options business more than 35 years ago.  

Mr. Hueber’s methodology combines his deep understanding of fundamental data, various technical indicators, and his studies of Gann and Elliot Wave Theories.  You can find out more about him and sign up for our newsletter at www.thehueberreport.com.

Dan can be reached at dan.hueber@cgb.com

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