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WTI Crude - Daily Technical Analysis

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Daily Technical Analysis & Forecast

The main trend remains up according to the daily chart, but I am noticing momentum shifting to the downside with the recent top established in the 57.92 area last week.

For this contract period which is quickly drawing to a close, the main range is between $51 and 58 price area. The pull-back area appears to be in a narrow band between $54.55~$53.75 and there is a likelihood of a good bounce from this band if we do happened to tag it in the intraday price cycling. In the event that we have covered a temporary low given EIAs lowered inventory number as compared to the API figures, we may rally to my DailyTarget forecast range between 55.90~56.60.

Based on the current price at $55.14 (as I write this) and the overnight virtually sideways price action, we may be driven by a pivot point in the 55.85 area to determine if buyers or sellers are prevailing for the session. Remaining under $55.85 will signal the fact that sellers continue to drive the momentum and we will quickly retest $54.85 area followed by the lower target reading for the intraday in the $54.79 price region. Tagging this region and bouncing is as much a possibility today as continuing farther down to take out the $54-handle to the $ 53.80 area and then very strong support in the $ 53.50 area. Staying above $55.85 will likely keep us above the $56-handle for the balance of the week but the momentum will likely continue to push this down in the $55~$53 value area into and early in the January18 contract roll period.

Daily Chart of WTI

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About the author

Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at

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