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FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures


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Euro (December)

Session close: Lost two ticks on the session

Fundamentals: Solid reads on Retail Sales and CPI this morning halted the selling in the Dollar. The Euro was up more than .5% at a high of 1.1881 before it pared all of its gains on the session. This pins the Euro back to a pivotal area ahead of CPI from the Eurozone tomorrow morning at 4:00 am CT.

Technicals: Price action in the Euro extended gains just above a key retracement level before it fell well short of major three-star resistance at 1.1921-1.1934. It is now back near the 100 day moving average ahead of big data tomorrow morning but could ultimately be in store for a session or two of consolidation. The Dollar Index traded down to its .382 before buyers stepped in.

Bias:Bullish/Neutral

Resistance 1.1866**, 1.1921-1.1934***, 1.1991*, 1.2019**

Pivot - 1.1826

Support 1.1795**, 1.1766**, 1.1714-1.1730***, 1.1622-1.1639**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

Yen (December

Session close: Gained 39.5 ticks on the session as the strongest against paired the Dollar.

Fundamentals: The Yen started extending gains last night as global equity markets became under pressure. Yields also retreated as the U.S 10 year gained .3% on the session. GDP data out of Japan last night was marginally better than expected. The Yen pared its gains as the Dollar stabilized with decent data out of the U.S but ultimately it was the best gainer today as shorts clearly became nervous.

Technicals: Price action traded to a high of .8903 but the high came quick and the tape has clung to the .8868-.8879 area. It is a relief to see the Yen finally move away from the major three-star support level at .8800-.8828 and remains just one event from a sharp short-covering rally. The 50-day moving average comes in at .8917. The 9-day moving average crossed above the 21-day moving average and this is a bullish signal in the near to immediate term.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance - .8917**, .8971-.8980***, .9021-.9045***

Pivot- .8868-8879

Support -.8800-.8828***, .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***

Aussie (December)

Session close: Lost half a penny on the session

Fundamentals: Wage data last night disappointed and traders now turn to the Employment read due at 6:30 pm CT tonight. To make matters worse for the Aussie, commodities are under pressure and the Dollar began paring losses midsession. Data tonight will be key.

Technicals: Price action is now below major three-star support and the door is wide open for the bears, however, as we just said tonights data will be key and this is the only reason we have not turned near-term bearish. The 200-day moving average comes in at .7679 and consecutive closes below three-star support at .7622 will make the 200-day the key level going forward in order for the Aussie to maintain a downtrend.

Bias:Neutral

Resistance - .7678**, .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***

Pivot - 7622***

Support - .7550**, .7390****

Canadian (December)

Session close: Lost almost a quarter on the session to settle at .78345

Fundamentals: We have seen profit taking this week in the Canadian as Crude Oil has been under pressure. Ultimately, traders are awaiting key data out of Canada that begins tomorrow with a read on Manufacturing at 7:30 am CT while Friday brings CPI.

Technicals: We are not concerned with this pull back because it has been orderly and as we discussed through the last two reports, the Canadian has not closed below multiple support levels in one session which would encourage further selling. Todays low hit support at .7821, a hold here through tomorrow and a close back above .7851-.7856 does not seem like a lot but would go a long way in constructing a bullish tape.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance .7920-.7954***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7851-.7856**, .7821*, .7745-.7790***, .7671**, 7550***

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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