Euro (December)
Session close: Lost two ticks on the session
Fundamentals: Solid reads on Retail Sales and CPI this morning halted the selling in the Dollar. The Euro was up more than .5% at a high of 1.1881 before it pared all of its gains on the session. This pins the Euro back to a pivotal area ahead of CPI from the Eurozone tomorrow morning at 4:00 am CT.
Technicals: Price action in the Euro extended gains just above a key retracement level before it fell well short of major three-star resistance at 1.1921-1.1934. It is now back near the 100 day moving average ahead of big data tomorrow morning but could ultimately be in store for a session or two of consolidation. The Dollar Index traded down to its .382 before buyers stepped in.
Bias:Bullish/Neutral
Resistance 1.1866**, 1.1921-1.1934***, 1.1991*, 1.2019**
Pivot - 1.1826
Support 1.1795**, 1.1766**, 1.1714-1.1730***, 1.1622-1.1639**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***
Yen (December
Session close: Gained 39.5 ticks on the session as the strongest against paired the Dollar.
Fundamentals: The Yen started extending gains last night as global equity markets became under pressure. Yields also retreated as the U.S 10 year gained .3% on the session. GDP data out of Japan last night was marginally better than expected. The Yen pared its gains as the Dollar stabilized with decent data out of the U.S but ultimately it was the best gainer today as shorts clearly became nervous.
Technicals: Price action traded to a high of .8903 but the high came quick and the tape has clung to the .8868-.8879 area. It is a relief to see the Yen finally move away from the major three-star support level at .8800-.8828 and remains just one event from a sharp short-covering rally. The 50-day moving average comes in at .8917. The 9-day moving average crossed above the 21-day moving average and this is a bullish signal in the near to immediate term.
Bias: Bullish
Resistance - .8917**, .8971-.8980***, .9021-.9045***
Pivot- .8868-8879
Support -.8800-.8828***, .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***
Aussie (December)
Session close: Lost half a penny on the session
Fundamentals: Wage data last night disappointed and traders now turn to the Employment read due at 6:30 pm CT tonight. To make matters worse for the Aussie, commodities are under pressure and the Dollar began paring losses midsession. Data tonight will be key.
Technicals: Price action is now below major three-star support and the door is wide open for the bears, however, as we just said tonights data will be key and this is the only reason we have not turned near-term bearish. The 200-day moving average comes in at .7679 and consecutive closes below three-star support at .7622 will make the 200-day the key level going forward in order for the Aussie to maintain a downtrend.
Bias:Neutral
Resistance - .7678**, .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***
Pivot - 7622***
Support - .7550**, .7390****
Canadian (December)
Session close: Lost almost a quarter on the session to settle at .78345
Fundamentals: We have seen profit taking this week in the Canadian as Crude Oil has been under pressure. Ultimately, traders are awaiting key data out of Canada that begins tomorrow with a read on Manufacturing at 7:30 am CT while Friday brings CPI.
Technicals: We are not concerned with this pull back because it has been orderly and as we discussed through the last two reports, the Canadian has not closed below multiple support levels in one session which would encourage further selling. Todays low hit support at .7821, a hold here through tomorrow and a close back above .7851-.7856 does not seem like a lot but would go a long way in constructing a bullish tape.
Bias:Bullish
Resistance .7920-.7954***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****
Support - .7851-.7856**, .7821*, .7745-.7790***, .7671**, 7550***
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