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Soybean Market - Just My Opinion

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The recent break in the flat price coupled with the recent break in the US Dollar has some believing the soybean market is ripe for some exporter interest. Daily sales announcements for soybeans to China have absent of late; the last sale reported was on October 27th. TheNOPA October crush data gave an extra added boost to the market midday especially for bean oil. It was a solid crush number for soybeans; just 200 K bu. below what was expected. Bean oil stocks came in noticeably lower than expected. Prior to the NOPA report soybean meal was trying to assert some leadership but that gave way shortly after. Tomorrow the trade will be looking at the weekly export sales data to see if todays rally can be extended.

Interior cash soybean markets continue to show a steady to higher bias. Now that harvest has concluded recent soybean movement is expected to be on the decline. Lets call the Gulf fully steady; no better, no worse. Soybean spreads ran flat up front; slightly better vs. the new crop. Overnight a prominent Chinese trading firm suggested their soybean imports would approach the 100.0 M T. mark this year. Offers to sell cash meal continue to be depressed. Meal spreads ran fractionally better. Soybean oil spreads have been a correction phase along with the flat price. Todays flat price rally in bean oil had spreads rebounding. The story in bean oil continues to be all about bio-diesel and its better demand for bean oil.

So can soybeans extend todays rally? Ill give it another 8-10 cents. If the interim sell signal that was recorded the other day is any good should limit the rally potential. The other day soybean meal was on the edge of electing sell stops but failed to do so. If todays oil/meal spreading continues I have to think those stops will be elected sooner vs. later. If bean oil did indeed register an interim top the other day another 35 pts or so on top of todays rally should find resistance. Palm oil has been in a swoon in recent days if that continues it will weigh on bean oils attempt to rally.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/16

March Beans: $9.78 - $9.96

Dec Meal; $309.0 (?) - $315.0

Dec Bn Oil: $34.20 - $35.20

Trading Futures is Risky - Never Risk more than what you can afford to lose

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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