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Corn Market - Just My Opinion


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It was a slow day for corn trading; barely a 2 cent daily range. It appears the trade has become a bit hesitant to press prices at current levels given the idea that the spec is now a record sized net short. Interior cash corn markets have been firming (spreads inching in). I believe that has calmed some of the selling for now. The weekly ethanol grind continues to be nothing short of robust. Overall domestic demand is no slouch. To get this market off of its can we need better exports and/or weather problems in SA. As of this writing I see no problems in Brazil while some want to talk up their positions by saying Argentina may be getting a bit dry. My however to the Argentine dryness story is that the forecasted dry spell is not expected to last very long. Currently it appears there are enough scattered rains around down there to keep the bulls at bay.

Interior cash corn markets continue with their recent steady to higher bias. While the Gulf market is not roaring higher it hangs tough. Corn spreads are inching in. Next week well start talking about December corn delivery possibilities. As of this writing I dont think theyll be all that great as Im showing a prominent central Illinois processor about to go over with his bid for corn.

Charts look ugly. Wednesdays minor consolidation alleviated some of the recent inter-day oversold. Im fully aware that over the pastfew days the managed money spec has probably amassed a record size net short position. I dont blame him as whats out there right now that says he is wrong? Ill concede there is room for a retracement bounce back to the low side of the trading we broke down from last Thursday. As of this writing any attempt to rally will be technical in nature due to thoughts of too many shorts and/or oversold. Volatility levels have been coming down with the recent break. The lack of volatility suggests trading will remain slow for some time to come.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/16

Dec Corn: $3.35 - $3.43

March Corn: $3.48 - $3.56

Trading Futures is Risky - Never risk more than what you can afford to lose



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About the author


Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.

 

 

Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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