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Morning Grains Report 11/15/17


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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 15
CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 16, 2017 16 Nov 14, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 16, 2017 157 Nov 14, 2017

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for November USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed November 1 105.7 105.0- 107.0
Placed in October 107.6 103.6- 113.1
Marketed in October 105.4 105.0- 106.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Nov 1 in Oct in Oct
Allendale Inc. 107.0 113.1 105.1
CoBank 105.7 106.6 105.4
HedgersEdge 105.3 105.9 106.1
Linn Group 105.0 103.6 105.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 105.4 105.8 105.5
NFC Markets 105.5 105.9 105.6
AgStrata LLC 105.7 112.4 105.3
Texas A&M Extension 106.2 109.0 105.3
U.S. Commodities 106.0 107.8 105.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little higher in Chicago and a little lower in Minneapolis as the US Dollar moved lower and helped create new demand ideas all three markets. Some selling was seen by the funds in all agricultural markets, but Wheat was able to hold much better than Corn of the Soy complex. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the Wheat offer and price. World estimates in general remain large and US offers will need to be low to take business. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower due to the fundamentals. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia. Prices might not improve much for the coming year as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal next week. The Canadian Prairies should see light Snow in the north today and to the east later in the week. Mostly dry this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 422, 419, and 414 December, with resistance at 434, 443, and 446 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 423, 419, and 414 December, with resistance at 433, 439, and 441 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 628, 624, and 617 December, and resistance is at 646, 653, and 658 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in recovery trading again yesterday. Early selling interest found no follow through, and limited buying appeared that pushed the market right back into its most recent trading range. Current chart formations suggest that a short-term low is possible. Futures trading has been slow and the cash market has also been quiet, so futures are reflecting the cash market reality in the US at the moment in terms of volume. However, futures remain well below cash markets in much of the US right now. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm, while markets farther north have offered lower prices due to the futures weakness and are very quiet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1131, 1128, and 1122 January, with resistance at 1156, 1166, and 1169 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and made new contract lows on what was called speculative selling and Oats closed higher. Corn closed lower on some follow through selling, but found little additional selling interest from producers. Industry was a light volume buyer. Oats closed higher and near the top end of the trading range as that market keeps its uptrend together. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. The harvest could be delayed this week due to more rains and snows for parts of the Midwest. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis and futures price levels. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions as the rains have stopped for now and are not expected to return in the short-term. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields, but the impact is for later at this time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 333 December. Support is at 334, 331, and 328 December, and resistance is at 344, 348, and 350 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 277, 287, and 291 December. Support is at 271, 268, and 265 December, and resistance is at 277, 283, and 289 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling. Funds were selling as short-term trends turned down due to ideas of big crops and slower demand. There have been no new export sales announcements for several days now. Soybeans futures broke some moving averages on the way down on Monday and these technical points created increased funds selling again yesterday. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower were fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits. Some GMO Soybeans have made it into the human food chain, and this news has caused the government to slow the process until it can identify the problems. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to 60% planters in Brazil right now. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 965 January. Support is at 963, 960, and 955 January, and resistance is at 982, 990, and 995 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 309.00 and 304.00 December. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3390, 3370, and 3330 December, with resistance at 3400, 3460, and 3480 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in line with selling seen in Chicago. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushes appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower and on speculative selling tied to ideas of rising production and weaker demand. Export data so far this month has been weak, and Dalian and Chicago futures prices have also been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. Speculators also sold as Chicago worked lower. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends have turned down again
Overnight News: SGS said that exports so far this month are 650,962 tons, from 709,322 tons last month. ITS said that exports are 660,465 tons, from 690,074 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 510.00 and 502.00 January. Support is at 512.00, 508.00, and 504.00 January, with resistance at 520.00, 523.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2710, 2690, and 2660 February, with resistance at 2780, 2820, and 2840 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible tomorrow and again late this week. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 35 Dec 208 Dec 55 Dec 30-Jan 4-Dec
December 41 Dec 58 Mar 37 Jan
January 39 March 43 Mar 40 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November
December minus 25 Dec 70 Dec
January minus 20 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 14
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 495.10 dn 0.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 522.60 dn 2.50
2 Can 509.60 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 532.60 dn 2.50
2 Can 519.60 dn 2.50
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 217.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 672.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 672.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 680.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 680.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 677.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 677.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 685.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 685.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 700.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 632.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,700 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 340.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1730)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 194,646 lots, or 7.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,634 3,642 3,570 3,616 3,647 3,616 -31 164,162 310,516
Mar-18 3,651 3,653 3,647 3,653 3,673 3,650 -23 6 34
May-18 3,760 3,774 3,722 3,749 3,770 3,751 -19 29,996 69,942
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,828 3,829 3,792 3,816 3,828 3,814 -14 402 1,584
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,852 3,891 3,852 3,880 3,887 3,877 -10 80 240
Mar-19 – – – 3,880 3,880 3,880 0 0 2
May-19 – – – 3,881 3,880 3,881 1 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 553,064 lots, or 9.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,689 1,699 1,686 1,694 1,692 1,691 -1 423,266 826,368
Mar-18 1,705 1,710 1,704 1,708 1,710 1,707 -3 20 1,532
May-18 1,742 1,748 1,736 1,745 1,744 1,741 -3 117,748 362,558
Jul-18 1,756 1,763 1,756 1,761 1,759 1,758 -1 24 484
Sep-18 1,755 1,767 1,750 1,760 1,757 1,757 0 11,872 58,728
Nov-18 1,769 1,786 1,763 1,781 1,757 1,780 23 134 82

Soymeal
Turnover: 1,534,382 lots, or 42.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 2,840 2,840 2,840 0 0 1,570
Jan-18 2,819 2,842 2,808 2,832 2,823 2,825 2 1,004,438 1,454,372
Mar-18 2,816 2,831 2,816 2,817 2,824 2,821 -3 30 246
May-18 2,751 2,770 2,734 2,747 2,752 2,749 -3 500,810 1,221,470
Jul-18 2,772 2,772 2,759 2,759 2,774 2,765 -9 4 168
Aug-18 2,778 2,793 2,735 2,760 2,764 2,772 8 20 140
Sep-18 2,760 2,780 2,749 2,758 2,762 2,761 -1 29,080 118,612
Nov-18 – – – 2,759 2,762 2,759 -3 0 0
Palm Oil
Turnover: 417,914 lots, or 23.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,514 5,538 5,466 5,478 5,556 5,506 -50 287,180 281,482
Feb-18 – – – 5,598 5,598 5,598 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,626 5,676 5,626 -50 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,726 5,726 5,726 0 0 10
May-18 5,630 5,656 5,572 5,578 5,674 5,616 -58 124,180 251,580
Jun-18 – – – 5,732 5,732 5,732 0 0 8
Jul-18 – – – 5,692 5,750 5,692 -58 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,634 5,634 5,634 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,578 5,586 5,502 5,510 5,598 5,542 -56 6,534 24,338
Oct-18 5,500 5,550 5,500 5,550 5,610 5,524 -86 20 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 380,376 lots, or 23.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,998 5,998 5,998 0 0 8
Jan-18 6,014 6,036 5,968 5,970 6,038 5,998 -40 260,296 640,550
Mar-18 6,106 6,106 6,032 6,032 6,080 6,068 -12 4 12
May-18 6,184 6,210 6,136 6,136 6,214 6,166 -48 117,520 308,694
Jul-18 – – – 6,306 6,306 6,306 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,320 6,320 6,320 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,280 6,300 6,208 6,220 6,308 6,244 -64 2,556 13,396
Nov-18 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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