rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Turner’s Take Newsletter and Podcast | Post-WASDE Thoughts

Bookmark and Share

NEW PODCAST | We have a new podcast that just came out today. I go over my thoughts on the WASDE, where we think corn and soybeans could trade in 2018, and our thoughts on crude oil, cattle, and hogs.  Click here to listen to Turner’s Take Podcast


MEET CRAIG TURNER | I’ll be at the Van Trump Conference on Wednesday, December 6th in Kansas City, MO.  If you are going to be there too then please let me know and we can meet up! I am also going to be at Commodity Classic from Feb 27 to March 1st in Anaheim, CA.  I think we are going to do a live podcast from the Daniels Ag Marketing booth.  That is another place we can meet up and who knows, you might even be on the podcast!


CORN | The USDA really surprised everyone by increasing yields to 175.4 bpa.  Production increased 298mm bushels but feed and exports increased by 150, so the net gain to carryout was on 147mm bushels. This puts projected 2017-18 corn carryout at 2.487 billion bushels with a 17.23 stocks/usage.  Not great…

One encouraging sign was corn did not break below $3.40. We tested those levels but the market held. I think at this point all the bearish news has now been priced in.  We could have a spectacular South American growing season, and that could bring down prices another leg, but at this point there seems to be more potential bullish cards in the deck rather than bearish.  The funds are short over 200K contract (at or near record levels), farmers don’t want to sell down here unless they have too, harvest is nearing completion, export demand for US corn can only get better, ethanol is supportive, and we are one weather event in South America from a decent short covering rally.

In the near term I think we are range bound and I continue to like short straddles in the corn market. I have been writing about them in Turner’s Take Ag Marketing and we will continue to hold those positions.

Longer term I think corn acres go down. I just finished my 2018 Corn Outlook report and we’ll have a link for everyone to access it later this week. Some analysts are calling for 92mm acres but I think we will be at 88mm.  A lot of farmers I talk to are more interested in beans next season, bankers want to see more beans due to input costs and profitability per acre based on current prices, and soybeans have a stronger demand growth story than corn does right now.  2018 could be the year when corn reverses trend and heads higher.





SOYBEANS | Soybeans were mainly unchanged as ending stocks came in at 425.  If South America has a large crop and we have 90+mm acres again, soybean stocks could be in the 500 to 600mm bushel range for 2018-19.  There are two big questions for soybeans in the coming months.

  • Do acres increase again in the US?
  • Does Chinese demand keep up with increases in global supply?

Soybeans are only grown for global export in a large scale in South American and the United States. Any serious production losses in Argentina, Brazil, or the US could send soybeans higher by a few dollars.  However, if South America and the US have another round of great crops, beans could be in the $8s!






WHEAT | Wheat stocks came down again!!!  I think we might be finally seeing stabilization, and dare I say it, a long term bottom in wheat.  Minneapolis wheat stocks fell too and I think we could see some tightness in that market later this winter or in the early spring.  KC is gaining on Chicago lately too. So that means the protein trade is starting to look bullish.  I like KC over Chicago and I like bull spreading MW. I have been writing about that in Turner’s Take Market Alert and I continue to like those positions.





Turner’s Take Market Alert – Trial

Try Turner’s Take Market Alert – for 30 Days

Turner’s Take Market Alert – Trial – Turner’s Take Market Alert includes Daily Updates and an Intraday Trade Recommendation service for Daniels Trading clients.

Turner’s Take Market Alert – includes an email newsletter subscription.

Turner’s Take Market Alert – trial lasts 30 days.

Contact Daniels Trading

To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or and mention .

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Recent articles from this author

About the author

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and

+1 (312) 706-7610 Local / Int’l
+1 (800) 958-9470 Toll-Free

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.

Copyright ©2005-2019, a product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy