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ES - Emini S&P Weekly Forecast & Technical Analysis

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Emini S&P Weekly Forecast & Technical Analysis

The trend for the December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures quickly approaching the last month into expiration remains up. However, the momentum appears to have shifted a tad bit to the lower side.

If we continue on a move above 2595, it will shed any inclinations of bearishness and allow the bulls to nicely prevail and keep the uptrend, likely intact till the end of the year. If we take out last weeks head-fake bottom at 2563.25 to the downside, we could see a temporary shift allowing us to test the fib-levels lower from the last big move.

The main range is 2407.50 to 2594. Its retracement zones in a narrow band between about 2501~2477 form the primary downside target. Like I stated last week, the 2577~2580 region is worth watching for moves to either side. As I write this before the open, we have trended lower than this.

The weekly chart suggests that there is room for accommodation below 2563.25 with the first major area of support hovering around 2608, followed by a 50% level at 2501 and a Fibonacci level at 2477.00. A sustained move over 2580 this week will validate the buing and challenge that resistance level at 2595 looking up towards 2606 and above here we are extremely bullish into the year-end.


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About the author

Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at

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