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Harker of Fed Backs Rate Hike in December


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November 13, 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures fell due to possible delays to President Donald Trump's tax reform plans.

U.S. Senate Republicans have unveiled a new tax plan that is different from the House of Representatives version and there are few signs that a compromise will soon be reached.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

While traders and analysts are focusing on politics as a negative, it will be the still relatively low global interest rate environment that sustains this bull market in the long term.

In spite of lower prices today, the main trend for stock index futures is higher.

CURRENCY FUTURES

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Bank of England chief Mark Carney will form a panel on Tuesday at a European Central Bank hosted conference in Frankfurt.

Analysts will be watching this event closely to see if these central bank leaders will reveal more about their monetary policy plans.

The U.S. dollar is a little higher against most other major currencies in spite of the uncertainty over the fate of the U.S. tax reform bill.

The British pound is lower due to a report in the Sunday Times that as many as 40 Conservative Members of Parliament agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in Prime Minister May.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are steady at the front of the curve and higher at the long end even though Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker today said he expected to back an interest rate increase in December despite caution over low inflation.

There are no other Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is over 98%.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

December 17 S&P 500

Support 2566.00 Resistance 2588.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 94.250 Resistance 94.660

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.16460 Resistance 1.16980

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88030 Resistance .88450

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .78560 Resistance .79030

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7624 Resistance .7677

December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 152^0 Resistance 153^4

December 17 Gold

Support 1272.0 Resistance 1285.0

December 17 Copper

Support 3.0650 Resistance 3.1300

December 17 Crude Oil

Support 56.37 Resistance 57.55

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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