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US Harvest Completion May Take Longer Than Normal

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Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 13, 2017.

Grain markets are in a narrow range as they wait for the CFTC report today. The expectation is for large fund short build up. Stock markets and US Dollar continues the uptrend.

World Weather Inc. sees "U.S. bottom line includes ongoing slow late season corn and soybean harvest progress in the Midwest because of cool temperatures, low evaporation rates and periodic precipitation... Brazil's bottom line is mostly very good... Argentina's bottom line remains good for spring and summer crop planting."

Technically, January soybeans are setting on key support which crosses near the 9.80 level. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages cross at 9.80. Trading below that level could trigger more selling.

December corn futures set new lows last week which now have become support. Chartist are wondering if prices can move back into the recent trading range. Time will tell.

Corn harvest is expected to reach 80 to 85% complete but still behind 92% average on this date.

Soybean harvest should be virtually completed at 95% done compared to 97% average.

Ag Rural puts Brazil's soybean planting at 56% compared to the 5 year average of 60% and 63% last year.

CFTC Commitment of Traders report was postponed until today due to the Veterans Day Holiday.

Funds covered some of their short positions on Friday as trade estimates they were net buyers of 5,000 corn contracts, 3,500 soybeans and 4,000 wheat contracts.

Brazilian Ag Consultant Pedro Dejneka was interviewed by Rich Feltes of RJO Radio on Friday. He suggests the Brazilian soybean crop even with replanting is looking good after later start than last year. He is looking for planted area up 3% over a year ago.

US oil rig count jumps by 9 last week to 738 rigs producing.

U.S. economic markets this week will focus on the prospects for tax reform as the House and Senate will continue to consider their respective bills and the U.S. inflation outlook with this week's PPI and CPI reports. Fed policy as a slew of Fed officials speak this week including Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday at an ECB panel in Frankfurt.

Estimated cattle slaughter showed that packers told USDA they intend to process 623,000 head this week. This would be only 1.4% over last year. Production over the past six weeks have averaged 3.6% over last year. Given the lower weights, USDA estimated the week's beef production at 0.6% under last year.

Cash cattle trade is expected to be steady weak but strength in the futures complex could change the feedlots and packers attitude.

December live cattle futures contract closed down $6.72 for the week on Friday, filling the gap left from previous week. Technical support now crosses at 117.50 with first resistance 122.50.

Live hog production last week was 1.5% over last year. The past six weeks slaughter has run 2.1% over last year while the past four have only run 0.1% over. For September and October the private trade was expecting a 3% year over year pace.

December lean hogs closed over $2.00 lower for the week and now has closed lower for 8 days in a row. The 200-day moving average crosses at 62.02.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.11 and select down 3.79. The CME Feeder Index is 159.38. Pork cutout value is up .60.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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