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Nasdaq Futures - Weekly Technical Analysis & Forecast


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Weekly Technical Analysis & Forecast

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures inched higher supported by support in some of the largely portfolios combined with solid earnings last week. While the Index in itself closed a tad bit lower, the divergence in the futures settlement away from the cash close allowed the futures price to stabilize and prop up some into the close on Friday as we crested above 6310 but settled around 6307.50. There are traders on both sides of the fence some who believe in continued bullishness and others who are tame and believe the tech run up has been too fast too early and without reason. There are others now on a hedging between the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, thinking that the former has sunk enough already and will find support.

Regardless, the price reversal top around the 6352 area is something I consider important not to ignore.

The main trend remains up according to the weekly swing chart. Continuation past 6352 will signify bullishness into the year end and into early January 2018. Trading below 6240 area on strong volume for this week will validate the bear camp and may lead to some support in the 6170 area initially and if that does not hold, there is a wide open gap leading well below the 6000 price handle, into retracement zones at 5990.

Based on last weeks close just below 6310, for this week the index is ruled by 6352 which works as initial resistance and a move above 6375 will imply continuance to the upside. For this week, inability to overcome 6352 initially will mean sellers want this to be lower with enough gusto to take this price below the 6200 handle. If 6190.00 region (and we are 100 points away from this as I write this) fails as support then look for acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in a tad below 6000. Continuation to the downside below here (ahead of any potential rally into the yearend) may not see the light of day if we take out 5880 ahead of the contract roll in December.

Weekly Chart of the Nasdaq futures



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Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at info@tradeguidance.com

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