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Morning Grains 11/10/17

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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 13, 2017 46 Nov 09, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 13, 2017 130 Nov 08, 2017
(c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Thursday and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2017 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average USDA USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct. 2016
Corn Production 14,578.0 14,323 14,127-14,459 14,280 15,148
Corn Yield 175.4 172.3 170.0-174.0 171.8 174.6
Harvested Acres 83.1 83.1 83.1-83.5 83.1 86.7
Soybean Production 4,425.0 4,404 4,340-4,467 4,431 4,296
Soybean Yield 49.5 49.2 48.5-49.9 49.5 52.0
Harvested Acres 89.5 89.4 88.5-89.5 89.5 82.7
U.S. 2017-18 Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 2,487.0 2,360 2,212-2,431 2,340
Soybeans 425.0 420 340-461 430
Wheat 935.0 956 940-987 960
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 226.6 226.5 222.6-228.0 227.0
Soybeans 96.3 94.7 94.0-95.0 94.9
Wheat 255.6 256.4 255.0-257.0 256.6
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 203.9 201.5 197.6-203.5 201.0
Soybeans 97.9 95.5 93.0-97.0 96.1
Wheat 267.5 266.9 261.0-269.2 268.1

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Nov 9
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 425 301 197 :152.43 147.66 132.46 348.89 351.25 313.71
Brazil na na na : 65.00 63.14 54.38 108.00 114.10 96.50
Argentina na na na : 8.00 7.02 9.92 57.00 57.80 56.80
China na na na : 0.15 0.11 0.11 14.20 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 1,616 1,711 1,687 : 11.75 11.40 11.68 56.29 53.95 51.54
Corn 2,487 2,295 1,737 :151.61 163.61 119.69 1,043.90 1,074.76 972.86
China na na na : 0.05 0.08 0.00 215.00 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na na : 29.00 25.50 21.64 42.00 41.00 29.50
S. Africa na na na : 1.70 2.50 0.84 12.50 17.48 8.21
Cotton(a) 6.10 2.75 3.80 : 38.04 37.23 35.13 121.46 106.47 96.15
All Wheat 935 1,181 976 :180.68 182.86 172.84 751.98 753.89 735.26
China na na na : 0.80 0.75 0.73 130.00 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na na : 28.50 27.31 34.69 151.49 145.47 160.48
Canada na na na : 21.00 20.18 22.11 27.00 31.70 27.59
Argentina na na na : 11.70 13.30 9.60 17.50 18.40 11.30
Australia na na na : 17.50 22.64 16.12 21.50 33.50 22.28
Russia na na na : 33.00 27.81 25.54 83.00 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na na : 16.50 18.11 17.43 26.50 26.80 27.27
Sorghum 19 34 37 : na na na na na na
Barley 61 106 102 : na na na na na na
Oats 30 50 57 : na na na na na na
Rice 29.9 46.0 46.5 : 44.91 45.34 40.24 481.20 486.57 472.57

General Comments: Wheat closed mixed in Chicago and higher in Minneapolis in response to the USDA crop reports. The supply and demand estimates showed the potential for increased demand for US Wheat, and this led to slightly lower ending stocks. However, world estimates remain large and USDA is showing that plenty of competition will be out there for sales. Funds were buyers to reduce a big short position. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower except for the big fund position. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition from Russia, but now appearing from other origins. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant as they see little profit potential in Wheat right now. This might not improve as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal this weekend and mostly above normal next week. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal this weekend and near to above normal next week. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal this weekend and near to above normal next week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 427, 422, and 419 December, with resistance at 434, 443, and 446 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 423, 419, and 414 December, with resistance at 439, 441, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 645, 633, and 628 December, and resistance is at 658, 668, and 678 December.

General Comments: Rice closed a little higher as USDA cut production slightly. However, the reaction was muted and the volume of trade was light. USDA also cut export demand due to the short crop, but export demand remains very strong at this time and prices will need to work higher to cut this demand soon. USDA also lowered its average farm price slightly, but this did not seem to matter too much. World data showed lower month to month ending stocks estimates. Domestic cash market conditions are generally quiet amid what appear to be stable flat price bids despite the futures weakness. Domestic cash quotes have held generally steady amid little interest in the Delta and are called firm in California.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1138, 1134, and 1128 January, with resistance at 1155, 1166, and 1169 January.

General Comments: Corn was lower in response to the USDA reports and Oats closed higher. The reports showed higher yields and production potential than anyone expected. Ending stocks were also higher than trade guesses, and there was selling almost immediately in response. However, good consumer buying was seen on the way down, and ideas are that there is still no reason to expect the market to move sharply lower. However, the reports removed reasons for the market to move significantly higher in the short term. The USDA reports overshadowed a very strong weekly export sales report for Corn that showed the best week for export demand in years. The harvest has been delayed, but producers are not real interested in selling at current prices, anyway, and are hoping for some type of a post harvest rally before selling too much. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels. Strong ethanol demand is expected to continue as fuel prices should remain relatively high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 341, 339, and 333 December. Support is at 340, 334, and 328 December, and resistance is at 348, 350, and 351 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 277, 287, and 291 December. Support is at 271, 268, and 265 December, and resistance is at 277, 283, and 289 December.

General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower in response to the USDA reports. USDA left yield estimates unchanged against trade expectations of a slight decline. Production and ending stocks were above the average trade guess, but within the range of trade guesses. Soybeans found renewed selling when the January contract failed to hold above $10.00 in response to the reports. The move below that level created a lot of liquidation selling. The export sales report was in line with trade expectations, but below recent sales volumes. Reports indicate that yields have been mixed and many analysts expected a slight reduction in the national yield from USDA. Little change on the demand side was anticipated, and no changes were made. The US harvest is about over now and farmers are showing less interest in selling. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 980 and 965 January. Support is at 984, 981, and 978 January, and resistance is at 995, 1000, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 309.00 and 304.00 December. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3590, 3600, and 3680 December. Support is at 3510, 3480, and 3460 December, with resistance at 3540, 3560, and 3600 December.

General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday in reaction to the price action in Chicago and to currency moves. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on selling tied to weak export data from the private surveyors and the bearish MPOB reports. There was some renewed talk of lower production. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. MPOB releases its monthly data later this week. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News: ITS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports so far this month are 436,988 tons, from 448,349 tons last month. SGS said that exports are 439,872 tons so far this month, from 462,082 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 510.00 and 502.00 January. Support is at 513.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 523.00, 529.00, and 535.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2770 and 2720 January. Support is at 2800, 2770, and 2740 January, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2880 January.

Monthly MPOB Report:
Observation period : October
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Friday, 10 Nov
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.95 mil tonnes, Up 9.4%
Exports – 1.55 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.20 mil tonnes, Up 9.6%
Actual as follows:
Production – 2.01 mil tonnes, Up 12.9%
Exports – 1.55 mil tonnes, Up 2.0%
Ending Stocks – 2.19 mil tonnes, Up 8.4%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 1.7%
Exports – 1.52 mil tonnes, UP 1.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.02 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Novmber 32 Dec 203 Dec 55 Dec 23-Nov 4-Dec
December 40 Dec 61 Dec 33 Jan
January 36 March 43 Mar 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
December minus 24 Dec 67 Dec
January minus 21 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 9
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
*Par Region 500.80 up 0.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 525.50 dn 5.30
2 Can 512.50 dn 5.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 535.50 dn 5.30
2 Can 522.50 dn 5.30
Lethbridge 217.00 up 4.00
Lethbridge 213.00 up 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 685.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 682.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 690.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 690.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 690.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 687.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 695.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 695.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 707.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 640.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2780.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 342.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –


Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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