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Tax Reform Delays Dominate


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November 10, 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures fell for a second day due to possible delays to President Donald Trump's tax reform plans.

The 9:00 central time November consumer sentiment index report is expected to be 100.

While traders and analysts are focusing on politics as a negative, it will be the still relatively low global interest rate environment that sustains this bull market.

In spite of lower prices today, the main trend for stock index futures is higher.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower against most other major currencies due to the uncertainty over the fate of the U.S. tax reform bill.

The British pound is higher on news that industrial output in the U.K. grew at its fastest rate so far this year in September, increasing .7% compared to the previous month.

In addition, a separate report showed the U.K.s trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by more than anticipated in September.

Also, there was some support for the pound as the latest update on the Brexit negotiations indicated there was still room for an agreement by the end of this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia in its quarterly statement reduced its inflation forecasts. The Australian central bank no longer expects to hit its 2-3% inflation target range until 2019, which indicates interest rates will not be increased any time soon.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are steady at the front of the curve and sharply lower at the long end.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is over 98%.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

December 17 S&P 500

Support 2569.00 Resistance 2589.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 94.200 Resistance 94.660

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.16320 Resistance 1.16980

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88030 Resistance .88450

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .78730 Resistance .79070

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7644 Resistance .7698

December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 152^16 Resistance 153^30

December 17 Gold

Support 1278.0 Resistance 1293.0

December 17 Copper

Support 3.0750 Resistance 3.1100

December 17 Crude Oil

Support 56.81 Resistance 57.55

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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