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Weekly Pork Export Sales Awful, Down 56 Percent

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Thursday November 9, 2017

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Running late so todays comments will be brief. Weekly pork export sales were awful, at marketing year low at just 7,800 MT with Mexico completely absent from the U.S. market. Shipments were better at 23,200, up 4% from the 4-week average with Mexico the largest receiver of product amounting to 35% of total weekly shipments. This news is very negative toward ham prices. Given a top in the hams that will force bellies to provide carcass stability. Thats likely not going to work out very well. Hog futures saw active volume yesterday at 73,500 with open interest down 2,000. It appears the funds may be finished with their buying spree. Technically the hogs are vulnerable to additional selling pressurelikely today.


Cash steers traded actively yesterday in KS and NE with much of the trade likely finished for the week. Prices were certainly a disappointment to the bulls which were charged up coming into the week. Cash trade was reported at $1.24. Futures saw a heavy volume session yesterday at nearly 115,000 cars. This was the highest volume trade since July 12 and 13th. Open interest, finally, took a breather, down 400 cars. Despite the fact that the beef has not topped it appears that futures have indeed topped out. Weve lighten the load on Dec hedges but we will be adding to hedged positions in the April and June contracts on any higher trade offered today. The same in the feeders. Consider it highly likely the board has topped and we will be using any higher trade to add to hedges. Weekly beef export sales were good, up 12% from the 4-week average. Shipments were down 7%.

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The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. The author does not guarantee the accuracy of the above information, although it is believed that the sources are reliable and the information accurate. The author assumes no liability or responsibility for direct or indirect, special, consequential or incidental damages or for any other damages relating or arising out of any action taken as a result of any information or advice contained in this commentary. The author disclaims any express or implied liability or responsibility for any action taken, which is solely at the liability and responsibility of the user. In addition, the author of this piece currently trades for his own account and may have financial interest in the following derivative products: (corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, lean hogs, live cattle, feeder cattle).

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About the author

Dennis Smith has been a full service commodity broker specializing in grain and livestock trading for over 25 years. Dennis has a wide range of customers, many of whom are grain and livestock producers. Dennis develops and helps execute hedging and speculative strategies in his Daily Livestock Wire which is prepared each afternoon exclusively for his customers.

Dennis grew up in Central Illinois before launching his brokerage career.

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