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FX Rundown

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Euro (December)

Session close: Finished down 20.5 ticks at 1.1612

Fundamentals: Weakness in the Euro has persisted since the ECB and the second wave began Friday. The currency saw further pressure early this morning after German Industrial Production came in very poorly. Eurozone Retail Sales was a bright spot, but technical selling took precedent and price action traded below 1.16 and to the lowest level since July 20th. Fed Chair Yellen spoke this afternoon and didnt say anything of note to the currency trade. Hopes on tax-reform have added strength to the Dollar though the Index struggled to hold session highs.

Technicals: The Euro traded to a session low of 1.15785 but parred more than half its losses before the end of the session. To us, this is not a convincing close below key support at 1.1622-1.1639. We would be lying to ourselves by denying relevant weakness, so traders must remain nimble and ultimately it would be prudent to wait until a close back above 1.1639 before repositioning bullishly for the long haul. A continued close below this level will give the bears the opportunity to remain in the drivers seat.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance 1.1655*, 1.1671**, 1.1705-1.1722***, 1.1772**, 1.1837-1.1850**, 1.1921-1.1933***

Pivot - 1.1622-1.1639**

Support 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled down 7.5 ticks.

Fundamentals: There was not a lot of new news today on the Yen front. President Trump continues his Asian trip and is pushing for a nuclear deal against North Korea, this along with progress on tax-reform has continued to support the Dollar. Weakness in the Yen has persisted due to the Bank of Japans commitment to easing.

Technicals: Today was somewhat of a disappointment for the bull camp as price action failed to follow through on yesterdays reversal, however, price action did manage to finish on the top end of its daily range. After a swift move below major three-star support at the .8800-.8828 level, price action has continued to cling to this level without completely failing nor closing back out above it. We must continue to watch this level on a closing basis for a nod to the bull or bear camp.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance - .8868**, .8894**, .8980**, .9028-.9029**, 9057***

Pivot- .8800-.8828***

Support - .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***

Aussie (December)

Session close: Finished unchanged

Fundamentals: The RBA left rates unchanged last night which was expected. However, the Aussie has been under pressure since a knee jerk reaction higher on the announcement. Traders brace for Chinese Trade Balance overnight.

Technicals: Major three-star resistance continues to stand strong and last nights spike following the RBA decision was rejected by this level with a high of .7698. The session low comes in at .7624, three ticks above the October 27th low and a retest to major three-star support at .7622. The bears have a clear edge right now but must achieve a close below support to open the door for further waves of selling.


Resistance - .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***

Pivot - .7673

Support - .7622***, .7550**, .7390****

Canadian (December)

Session close: Lost 40 ticks on the session.

Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Governor Poloz remained neutral on rates this afternoon by signaling the central bank is monitoring wage gains and inflation and how the economy is adjusting to back to back hikes. The extremely negative data has recently begun to show a light at the end of the tunnel and if this continues, the Canadian will prove to be a strong buy at this level as a hike could come into the picture in the first quarter of next year.

Technicals: This was a disappointing session for the bull camp, but price action has seemingly stabilized against major three-star support. A reversal into tomorrow should prove to pick up steam and help solidify a longer-term bottom. If price action gets out above .7918-.7939 we believe all the longs that jumped ship over the last month will be chasing back in and create a strong bullish leg higher. However, buyers must be nimble on a close below major three-star support.


Resistance .7856**, .7918-.7939*** .8035-.8046**, .8293****

Support - .7745-.7790***, .7671**, 7550***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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