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Blue Line Morning Express (Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, S&P, 10yr)


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E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close: Traded to and settled at a new all-time high; 2590 and 2588.75 respectively.

Fundamentals: The S&P put in another strong session yesterday and Asia leads the way this morning with the Nikkei up more than 1.5% and Russia up more than 2%, China and Hong Kong are both up around 1%. President Trump called for North Korea to come to the table on a nuclear deal in a speech in South Korea. The Kremlin said that he will visit with Putin at a forum in Vietnam this week. The tax-reform discussion will heat up and this is important to listen to as the S&P nears its next round number. JOLTs Job Openings is due at 7:30 am CT and Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at 1:30 pm.

Technicals: Price action is working to put in a higher low for the third straight session. The bulls will remain in the drivers seas as long as we maintain a close above the 2581.75 level. The next resistance pocket we have is at 2596-2600 and the emphasis is two levels as well as the law of round numbers. However, we have no next major three-star resistance in sight at the moment.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance 2596-2600**, 2616**

Support 2581.75**, 2571.75-2573.50**, 2561.25-2563.25**, 2555.50**, 2539.25-2543***, 2523.25**, 2507.75***

Crude Oil (December)

Yesterdays close: The breakout continues, session settled at 57.35.

Fundamentals: The news out of Saudi Arabia has at a minimum discouraged selling. The crackdown is said to widen this morning as more bank accounts are frozen. Now in November, the OPEC meeting is nearing, and this has added to the bullish momentum. On Monday Nigeria and Iraq both commented on support of a deal to extend production cuts. Inventories come into the picture today and a three day stretch of data out of China begins later tonight with Trade Balance.

Technicals: The technical picture remains very strong and the only resistance level we had between Fridays breakout above major three-star resistance at 55.02-55.25 and the upside target of 58.97 was taken out at 56.51-56.79; as long as price action remains above here intraday the tape is very bullish.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance 58.97***

Support 56.51-56.79**, 55.02-55.25***, 54.45-54.54**, 53.76-53.90**, 52.86-53.11***

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close: Settled at 1281.6

Fundamentals: The Dollar is strengthening this morning, and this began on the European open. Gold opened up the evening flat but has trickled lower into this morning down about $4. Dollar strength comes after an awful read on German Industrial Production data this morning though Eurozone Retail Sales followed it up with a better than expected results. Momentum in the currency market still is carrying over from Fridays ISM Non-Manufacturing despite a breather yesterday and as President Trump rallies support for a North Korean nuclear deal during his trip in Asia. JOLTs Job Openings are due at 7:30 am CT and Janet Yellen speaks at 1:30 pm.

Technicals: Gold closed above resistance at 1280.3-1280.8 which now comes in at 1280.5-1281.6, however, given the early strength the tape was disappointing last night. Yesterday brought another hold against major four-star support and metal remains very constructive over the long-haul. However, the Dollar is risking and massive long-term level in the Dollar Index comes in at 95.80; this must be on everyones radar.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance 1280.5-1281.6**, 1291.3-1292.9**, 1298.4-1300**, 1308.4-1312.6**

Support 1262.8-1269***, 1243.6**

Natural Gas (December)

Yesterdays close: Settled at 3.134, the highest since 10/24/17

Fundamentals: Colder temperatures are across the Midwest, but the east coast remains mild. The United States is exporting and the bullish picture is molding together.

Technicals: Price action got out above resistance at the 3.103 level and it will be key for the market to hold above here in order to maintain immediate-term momentum. Todays session traded to a new swing high of 3.148 before retreating. Price action built a shelf above 3.05 throughout yesterday before pushing higher. First major support now comes in at 3.033-3.05 and a move below here will neutralize the strength from late last week and into Sunday. The gap support is now our three-star level at 2.984-2.998 and a close below here will encourage selling. The bulls must achieve a close out above 3.179-3.198 resistance to ignite a bullish leg higher.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance 3.179-3.198***, 3.22**, 3.323-3.36***

Support 3.103*, 3.033-3.05**, 2.984-2.998***, 2.847-2.861**, 2.753-2.7565***, 2.486-2.522****

10-Year (December)

Yesterdays close: Settled at 12511

Fundamentals: Prices are holding hell despite a another session of new all-time highs in the equity market. JOLTs Job Openings come into the picture at 7:30 am CT and Janet Yellen speaks at 1:30 pm. Traders should keep an ear to the ground on Trumps trip in Asia and the ongoing discussion of a nuclear deal for North Korea. However, the tax-reform debate heats up this week and might be a more imminent factor in the treasury market. The 10-year seems to be holding the better of the other safe-haven assets between Gold and the Yen, though given the Dollar strength traders should look to pare back longs and be prepared for a lower tape.

Technicals: We have become more neutral today on Dollar strength. This rally that began after the ECB a week and a half ago might have run its course. We still believe in a long position, but traders might want to be patient at the moment. Furthermore, we have discussed the more intermediate-long term trade to set up after the Fed hike in December and into January. Resistance comes in at 12519 and the tape feels to be running out of steam into here. However, traders who want to stay long can look to manage risk with a stop just below first key support.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance 12519**, 125255**, 12601**, 12615***

Support 12502-125035**, 12419**, 12400**, 12222 12229***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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