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Average Hourly Earnings Decline

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November 3, 2017


Nonfarm payrolls in October increased 261,000, which was the largest gain since July 2016, but was below economists expectations for an increase of 310,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate fell to near a 17 year low at 4.1%, which compares to the estimate of 4.2%.

Average hourly earnings for private sector workers decreased by one cent or .04% last month to $26.53 an hour, which was below analysts expectations for a .2% monthly gain.

The 8:45 central time October PMI service index is anticipated to be 55.9.

There are two 9:00 reports. September factory orders are estimated to up 1.2% and the October ISM nonmanufacturing index is estimated to be 58.6.

The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.


The U.S. dollar fell after the release of the October U.S. nonfarm payrolls and weekly earnings reports, which came in below expectations.

In addition, the greenback weakened on news that the U.S. trade deficit widened in September, which reflected imports increasing to the highest level since January.

The Canadian dollar is higher on news that Canada added 35,300 jobs in October, which compares to expectations of a 15,000 increase.

Weaker than expected retail sales in Australia pressured the Australian dollar.


Yesterday President Trump nominated Fed Governor Jerome Powell to be the next Federal Reserve chair.

Powell is considered to be on the dovish side. He has broadly supported Fed Chair Yellens monetary policies and has shared her concern that low inflation levels justify continuing with a cautious approach to increasing interest rates.

Futures are only steady to a little higher after the bullish on balance U.S. employment report.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will speak at 11:15.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is over 98%.


December 17 S&P 500

Support 2572.00 Resistance 2584.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 94.030 Resistance 94.760

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.16550 Resistance 1.17310

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .87670 Resistance .88270

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .77850 Resistance .78770

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7655 Resistance .7723

December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 153^8 Resistance 154^8

December 17 Gold

Support 1272.0Resistance 1284.0

December 17 Copper

Support 3.1200 Resistance 3.1650

December 17 Crude Oil

Support 54.46 Resistance 55.03

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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