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Blue Line Express: FX Rundown

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Euro (December)

Session close: The Euro gained 41 ticks

Fundamentals: Strong Manufacturing and Employment data out of Germany this morning got the Euro moving higher and this move was somewhat negated by better than expected Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Productivity in the U.S. The more powerful move came this morning when the tax-reform bill was introduced. President Trump confirmed that Powell is his nomination for the next Fed Chair and currencies did not budge much. Traders brace for tomorrows Nonfarm Payroll report and expectations come in at a whopping 310k. Lets not forget that Average Hourly Earnings will also play a key role.

Technicals: Todays brief but still session high comes in at 1.17145. Much of the price action remained below the 1.17 mark and major three-star resistance at 1.1705. The tape has been favorable to the bull camp all week, but it is not surprising that we have not seen a move back above this critical three-star level, one that was support on the way down. The Euro will be at the mercy of tomorrows data. We have now reduced 1.1736 to a minor level with more emphasis at 1.17595-1.1767 and then trend line resistance comes in above there at 1.1837. Major support remains at 1.1622-1.1639 and a close below here will likely encourage strong selling through the lows of last week.


Resistance 1.1705***, 1.1736*, 1.17595-1.1767*, 1.1837**, 1.1860-1.1879**, 1.1921-1.1933***,

Support 1.1622-1.1639**, 1.1604*, 1.1481-1.15***

Yen (December)

Session close: The Yen gained 17 ticks on the session and held yesterdays low but could not hang onto early gains.

Fundamentals: The Yen performed the best today when the S&P was under pressure. Once equity markets held lows and that coupled with better than expected data from the U.S began to put pressure on the Yen. Traders now await tomorrows Nonfarm Payroll data.

Technicals: Lets not beat around the bush, the Yen remains weak and has again settled below key three-star support at .8800-.8828. Looking through a glass that is half full, the Yen has built a rising support trend line over the last 36 hours and against a higher low than last Friday. As we said with the Euro, tomorrows Nonfarm Payroll will ultimately dictate the close on the week.


Resistance - .8868**, .8894**, .8980**, .9028-.9029**, 9057***

Pivot- .8800-.8828***

Support - .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***

Aussie (December)

Session close: Gained 49 ticks on a strong session

Fundamentals: Australia produced strong Building Approvals and Trade Balance data last night which helped light a fire under the currency last night. Momentum held in place through todays session and we now await Retail Sales at 7:30 pm CT. We also have Chinese Caixin Services PMI data at 8:45 pm CT and Nonfarm Payroll in the U.S tomorrow.

Technicals: Major three-star support at .7622 held strong and price action has been very constructive in the last two sessions. We are now becoming cautiously bullish off this key support and a close above what is three-star resistance at .7717-.7725 would be bullish. Trend line resistance aligns with our .7780 level and will be a big stepping stone upon short covering. The 9-day moving average has potentially bottomed out and a positive session tomorrow to close out the week will further support its move towards the 21 dma. The 200-day moving average comes in at .7673.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance - .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***

Pivot - .7673

Support -.7622***, .7550**, .7390****

Canadian (December)

Session close: Gained 42.5 ticks on a strong session.

Fundamentals: We saw the Canadian gain ground from oversold territory today on a weaker U.S Dollar and ahead of tomorrows jobs data both in the U.S and Canada due at 7:30 am CT. The Canadian is priming to gain back ground from its recent shellacking. Traders should also keep Crude in their sight and strength here should help the CAD.

Technicals: The Canadian regained a crucial technical level today at .7790 and a close back above here tomorrow will invite the bulls back to the party. The 200-day moving average was held on the lows. The next key resistance level comes in at .7856. But tomorrow morning will be all about the data.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance .7856**, .7918-.7924** .8035-.8046***, .8293****

Pivot - .7790***

Support - .7715-.7725**, .7671**, 7550***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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