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Turn from the Bottom

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The short term trend in Dec natural gas has turned sideways to up, with a higher high and a higher low. Momentum studies are moving from oversold levels to mid range, which should help prices with continued buying. The 9, 18, and 27-day moving averages are beginning to turn up as well, supporting the idea of an uptrend. Resistance is still seen near the all important $3.000 price level, and $2.900 is still close in support. Again, a close above $3.000 may signal a higher trading range. It seems every .10 denotes a range boundary.

The storage number came in almost precisely at 65 bcf, with the expected infusion at 63 bcf. The market didnt range wildly after the announcement. Average to below temperatures are forecast for most of the continental United States. Some of the southern states are still expecting an above average forecast, but the remaining time for that is dwindling. On the demand side, Mexico is set to put a number of pipelines into use early in the firstquarter of next year. This can bring new buying pressure into the equation. Again, long exposure warrants strong consideration, either with call options or long contracts.

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About the author

Jeff Ratajczak

Jeff attended Illinois State University. In 1993 Jeff began his financial career in the stock market as a retail broker. He transitioned to futures in 1999 with LFG Intermarket Group, which became ZAP Futures. In 2004 ZAP Futures was acquired by RJO Futures' parent company R.J. O'Brien. Jeff's focus is to assist clients in managing risk and speculate through futures and options strategies.

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