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Big Bean Sales Expected Again This Week

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Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 2, 2017.

Grain markets are not providing much to discuss as harvest progresses and producers are struggling with storage and price issue. Weather is delaying the finish of US soybean harvest. Economic traders are waiting for the employment data on Friday.

Weekly export sales report will be released this morning at 7:30 am CT. Trade is estimating sale to be: corn 800,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes, soybeans 1,450,000 to 1,850,000 tonnes, soymeal 100,000 to 250,000 tonnes, soyoil 8,000 to 30,000 tonnes and wheat 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes.

USDA's Monthly Report on oilseed crush came in at 145.37 million bushel which was in line with the trade estimate of 145.4 million bushels. For the first month of the marketing year, crush ran 5.1% over last year. USDAs current goal, at 1.940 billion bushels for the whole year, would be 2.2% over last year. USDA says 447.6 million bushels of corn used for fuel alcohol in September, up from 435.2 million bushels a year ago. They also reported 1.847 million tons of DDGs were produced in September, down from 1.964 million a year ago.

Ethanol Production for the week ending October 27 was 1.056 million barrels per day. This was an increase from the previous week and is 3.8% over last year. Ethanol stocks should a build of 440 thousand barrels to 21.474 million barrels which is 8.79% higher than last year.

EIA data showed crude oil stocks fell by 2.44 million barrels and gasoline stocks dropped by 4.02 million barrels.

USDA November Supply and Demand report will be released on Thursday, November 9th. History suggests the US soybean crop has increased 6 out of the last 8 years from October to November. US corn crop got bigger from October to November in 4 out of the last 5 years.

Cash corn and soybean basis bids improve at some location across the Midwest due to lack of farmer selling.

FC Stone's estimate for the November USDA crop report is 173.7 corn yield and 49.9 for soybean yield. Informa will release their estimates later today.

Funds were estimated to have been net buyers of 5,000 corn and 6,000 soybean contracts. They were flat in the wheat.

Technically, grain rallied slightly on Wednesday, off chart support. Key price values will be this week's lows as we approach the end of week. A close below this week lows could trigger further selling pressure.

Fed held key rate unchanged but hints of a future hike as the economy improves after huricanes.

President Donald Trump has said he will announce his choice for Fed chair on Thursday. Jerome Powell, a Fed board member, is assumed to be the top contender.

Fed Cattle Exchange had 1515 head of cattle offered at the electronic auction on Wednesday of which only 1 pen (274 head) of heifers sold at 120.00. Offers at the feedlots are running 123 to 126.

Live cattle futures continue their rally on strong fundamental news, fund buying, short covering and rising open interest. The strong stock market is being talked about as the fuel for strength in the livestock markets during a period where burdensome supplies were expected to pressure prices.

December lean hog futures closed sharply lower on Wednesday which resulted in an inside day on the charts. The direction of this weeks close could impact further price direction.

Live hog traders continue to scratch their heads as production runs above last year and prices move higher.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .95 and select down .19. The CME Feeder Index is 157.34. Pork cutout value is down .51.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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