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Based On Where The Russell 2000 Is Trading.


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Here is a Special Email Alert I broadcast to my brokerage clients and to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite. I sent out two Special Alerts today in addition to my two regular broadcasts. And here are a few of my thoughts.


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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


Dow futures are 87 lower at 23,286 and the Russell 2000 ois 20.70 lower at 1487.70. The last time the Russell was here was in the final few days of September. But in the final few days of September, Dow futures were under 22,400, down 890 to 900 points down from here.


The S&P right now is 11.00 lower but note the Nasdaq is unchanged at 6215.50, but far off the high of the posted at 6251.50. Should the Nasdaq close lower it will be posting a downside key reversal. But a lower close is needed.


The Dow needs to close under the 23,200 level to appear to be in big trouble. The low today is 23,274. If the Dow cannot drop below that today, it may rally tomorrow. If is closes below 23,200, tomorrow could be one of bright red ink across the board for all stocks indexes.


Watch the Dow closely. If it slips another 70 to 90 points, the Nasdaq should drop hard and the weakness will likely infect the cattle market as well. It is not unusual for cattle and the Dow to move in near tandem. I have touted that theory on and off the past two months and that certainly seems to be the pattern.


I have no desire to be long much of anything here in the 4th quarter of the year. If the Dow begins to trend lower, I expect a host of other markets to follow suit and led by cattle and feeders and followed by lean hogs.


The time is 2:25 p.m. Chicago

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With the Dow ending deep in the red along with the S&P and Russell 2000, tomorrow should be interesting.

The time is now 3:48 p.m. Chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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