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Meats, Bonds, Crude, few others


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Good Morning,

Do you need help getting motivated about a trade idea? Low risk entry with tight stop methodologies or levels that can turn into something into with bigger bang for buck than what your doing.

Bonds- 150.10 hit and held Friday, one more support under will be critical to hold or this bond market really starts to lose the long term bullish bond supporters and lead to higher rates. This is a last stand for buyers to keep lower interest rates from going over 3% ballpark. This also is and can be the low Friday.

Coffee- Funds shorter, 123.17 OLB has held several times, risk stop still under. This is a nice setup and could turn into something big soon. Do shorts blow last day of month?


Grains- index players have been noticed to trim long positions, very uncommon for sure. It is very measured and small but 4,000 still carries weight with me as to what the macro backdrop is.
Corn- funds short about 200k, selling more. This could be a powder keg but one more dip may or may not be in store, CH $3.57 and lower support levels.

Soybeans- Some Trendline breakouts back months, funds flat. Cited $9.07 June USDA low now $1.00 higher defies bears as money managers buy inflationary long term is my opinion. Other markets are where beans were back then. BOZ feels like the sleeper, 3232 stands so far and this may start vertical price action. Into some sell areas but if over buy back break may be in store. Can this go to all time highs? Soybeanwheat spread did and then broke $5.00 this year, my ratio. $1.22 last ish. This spread moves.

Meats all live, see previous posts as bull stalled. Currently OL sell VIO! Dont short is my take. Facts changed over my level posted last week. Monday expiring Oct is up sharply. Now Dec and Feb above which either . can mean this is going much higher. Since cattle by itself is not a specialty like grains with me but I keep asking those of you if China is buying big? This possibly (hope) might top after Oct bearbusting final quote but this also might mean this market is going much higher.

Those are characteristics of this algo and rules I try to tie to it in a general pattern. Currently we are doing a consecutive up pattern today. I would not stand in the way of this rally at this point. Knowing when to say I give and not stand in front of the freight train is another rule I have tried to come up with. Is China trying to appease Trump? I have heard they were upping their diet but that is not what I do.

April Crude- I have some resistance level hit today, one more behind, or higher in April only. Back month. This happened in beans the last break in back months while front missed. This is how they put extremes on spreading market in my opinion. Lots going on everywhere so lets chat a few minutes if you find interesting. I have some RBOB and crude live today at decent levels. Those would be short bets. If you were looking I would suggest and we either trade it, or take a pass. They took a pass in bonds. I quantify where I think is small risk but you must hold on to winners.

RBEZols172

Indicting the Presidents men is usually more bearish than is the action today. Call and chat for a few minutes.
--
Alan R Palmer

PS_ I will NOT be doing Wed.s webinar as a fellow family and CME Exchange member has passed. We may try to do one Friday last minute so join my list to see if an olive is for you.

Specializing in providing timely technical advice to the AG business community. Contact me for a free outlook in your specific product.

arp@WalshTrading.com

312.957.8248

Alan R. Palmer

Sr. Strategist

Toll Free: 1 888 391 7894

Direct: 1 312 957 8248

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arp@walshtrading.com

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About the author


Alan R. Palmer, Sr., is a successful independent trader and technical analyst specializing in agricultural, financial and stock index futures. He has worked primarily in the markets traded on the CME Group.

Alan started trading at the Chicago Board of Trade in 1986 in the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond pit as a local. In 1987, he bought his full membership the day of the historic crash and moved back to his passion, trading soybeans, and grains along with bonds and stocks. Moving from pit to pit as market indicators dictated, Alan used his charting calculations to spot pivotal points as markets crossed ‘key levels.’ This acumen is Alan’s specialty and now he delivers this knowledge and experience to his customer base. He offers a macro thought process to viewing markets and players as they act with predictive behavior acumen.

He began his career in the futures industry as a summer runner while thirteen on the floor of the CBOT in 1973 delivering orders and learning the rudimentary workings of the markets. He graduated from runner to phone clerk, delivery clerk during the Hunt silver squeeze, working for various brokerage firms. After earning a Bachelor’s degree from DePaul University while working full time, he began a career as a proprietary trader with Paul Tudor Jones, a world-renown money manager, where he perfected his technical analytical techniques.

Alan has appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, and has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Bloomberg and Reuters newswires. He was the founder of Nasdog.com, an independent research and charting web enterprise, based on time-tested, support and resistance calculations for predicting multi-market swings. Alan holds an undergraduate degree in Business Finance Administration from DePaul University in Chicago.

Contact Alan:
Phone: 312.957.8248 or 888.391.7894
Email: arp@walshtrading.com

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