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Corn Harvest Progresses Slowly

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Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 30, 2017.

Grain markets are remaining rangebound as funds search for reasons to change their short positions. The US stock market and US Dollar are getting the attention of traders as the month of October comes to an end.

Corn harvest is expected by the trade to be 55% complete versus 38% last week and 75% average. Soybean harvest is expected to be 85% complete versus 70% last week and 85% average. Winter wheat planting should be about average at 86%. Look for the first wheat rating which is expected to be 60% good/excellent.

CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds net sellers of the top 3 grain commodities. They were net sellers of 3,710 corn contracts to raise their short positions to 174,394. Managed funds sold 18,922 contracts of soybeans which reduced their long positions to 49,246 net long. They sold 6,273 contracts of wheat to increase shorts to 83,965 contracts.

World Weather Inc. forecasts Brazil to remain tilted toward improving soil moisture and crop conditions. There will still be some areas of dryness, but timely rainfall is expected to favor spring planting, emergence and establishment. Argentina is mostly good for spring fieldwork, but some net drying is expected which may ultimately lead firmer topsoil and a little crop stress later in November.

China late last week confirmed that they will cut the minimum price of wheat in order to trim the large wheat reserves. This is the 1st time in 13 year they have lower wheat prices.

US oil rig count was 737 which was up 1 last week.

Weekly cattle slaughter last week was the lost since Labor Day while cattle weight remain 24# below last year.

October live cattle contract goes off the board on Tuesday.

December live cattle futures were 4.22 higher for the week at Fridays close. Chart resistance comes in at 122.85 and support crosses at 118.80.

Hog production last week was estimated by USDA at 2.526 head. This was 4.9% higher than same period a year ago.

Russia announced it had expanded its ban on food imports from the EU, Canada, and the US. They have now banned the imports of live hogs from these countries. The last time US sent a live hog to Russia was in 2014. This ban should not a factor in price determination for US hogs.

December lean hogs has consolidated near the contract highs. Resistance is 65.85 with support at 63.00.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .93 and select up .57. The CME Feeder Index is 155.12. Pork cutout value is up .19.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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