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5 Tradable Events this Week

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1. Federal Reserve

The Fed is in the picture this week for two reasons; they are set to begin their two-day meeting Tuesday and conclude with a policy statement Wednesday and President Trump is expected to declare the next Fed Chair sometime this week. Wednesdays 1:00 pm CT statement is likely to be upbeat on the economy and comes after Fridays better than expected Q3 GDP. Many recent growth components have beaten expectations following the summertime loll. However, inflation continues to drag and remains a concern. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, a key way to measure inflation, is due out tomorrow (Monday) at 7:30 am CT along with Personal Spending and Income data. The Dollar Index is squarely in our cross-hairs; it is now above key resistance at 93.80-94.00 and is in somewhat of a no-mans land. However, if it can extend gains further to major four-star resistance at 95.88 this week it will also be in overbought territory.

President Trump is expected to pick current Fed Governor Jerome Powell this week to replace Janet Yellen in February. The equity market has favored this pick, it brings in an insider to succeed Yellen and someone who would most likely maintain her current gradual pace of tightening. Additionally, he satisfies both sides of the isle in Washington and is favored by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

2. Tax-Reform

The budget moved through the House of Friday and this paved the way for tax-reform before yearend. The House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady has promised to unveil his 1,000-page tax-reform bill on Wednesday. This will be a pivotal step in understanding how easy it might be to get this legislation passed; hurdles are imminent. Strong earnings from tech firms Thursday vaulted the NASDAQ to new all-time highs as it gained 2% on Fridays session. The S&P had a more modest session but also set new all-time highs. Prior to Thursdays earnings the market began to show signs of exhaustion; who can blame it on this run. To be clear we have rotated a bullish and neutral bias in our Morning Express, but the market faces resistance at 2581.75 and if this tax-reform bill is not well received we should begin to see waves of selling.

3. Jobs

Friday brings Nonfarm Payroll and the expectations are big as job growth bounces back from a hurricane riddled 60 days. Early expectations come in at 315,000 jobs created in October. This is not the only report as it is always surrounded by the ISM reads. Look for this gauntlet of data to ultimately confirm or deny the Feds message on a December hike. Treasury prices are pushing well against the lows from early this year and anything that denies a December rake hike will spark a massive short covering rally.

To read about #4 & #5, visit our blog: The Blue Line Express

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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