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Rough Ride


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

In keeping with my bias, lean and desire, not to be long much of anything in the 4th Quarter of the year here is what I suggested to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite and to my brokerage clients. I stated clearly in what is below in a Special Alert Email sent yesterday at 6:07 p.m. Chicago time:

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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


Sell (1) December S&P E-Mini at the market. The range tonight is 2565.00 to 2563.25 with a last of 2564.00 down 3.25. Use 2570.00 stop, intra-day.


The time is 6:07 p.m. Chicago time, Tuesday, October 24.

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The short in the S&P placed at 2565.00 late yesterday afternoon is doing well today with a last of 2548.50, down 18.75. The Dow is off 171 points at 23,233. Not a good day for equities.


But here is food for thought. The Russell 2000 is 1489.00, down around 12.50. The last time the Russell was here or lower, Dow futures were 22,500 or lower compared to the last of 23,233.


I am sitting on some losses on short live cattle but I did suggest selling January feeders yesterday at $154.75. That was only the third feeder recommendation I have offered since April. And to my chagrin, the trade is sitting on a 50 to 60 point loss as I type furiously away.


I also suggested selling April lean hogs at $73.00 yesterday and that too is not doing well. That was my first trading suggestion for April hogs in 7 months. Or longer.

With record supplies of beef and pork expected to hit the marketplace in the final months of this year I would rather sell rallies in the critter complex than buy breaks. One of my favorite groups is predicting that based on Fridays, Cattle on Feed report, beef production in January and February will be 15% above year ago levels. Can demand eat through that much beef? Sure! But I would not bet on it!


With bond prices hitting a 4 month low today and the 2 year Treasury notes falling to a 9 YEAR low, expect VOLATILITY for the entire Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities to heat up like nothing seen in years. Maybe decades!


My advice you ask? 1. Avoid the long side of most all markets in the final quarter of this year. 2. Use a stop. 3. Buckle up its going to be a rough ride.


The time is 12:23 p.m. Chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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