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Morning Softs Report 10/23/17


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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again on Friday and trends are turning down on the charts. The weekly charts show that the market has one key support level to break this week at 6649 basis December futures. Breaking this level implies moves to near 60.00 are possible. The daily charts also show the potential for prices to work lower as the harvest continues in the US. Ideas are that the recent weather has been good for maturing crops and harvest activities. Classing data released on Friday shows that the crops harvested so far are in mostly good condition. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry. Good harvest weather is expected this week.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get showers and storms today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 65.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 2,344 bales, from 2,995 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6580 December. Support is at 6700, 6660, and 6630 December, with resistance of 6830, 6860, and 6900 December.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Oct 20
Data quoted in bales for week ending Oct 19. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 196,212 309,590 Southwest 162,332 1,496,317
NC 29,613 50,197 Okla 4,423 4,558
SC 17,799 36,033 Texas 157,909 1,491,759
Ga 108,783 171,108 Kansas – –
Ala 34,495 46,730
Fla * – – Far West 14,661 43,684
Va 5,522 5,522 NM – –
Ariz 5,393 29,602
Delta 346,566 627,049 Calif 9,268 14,082
Miss 89,118 189,761
Tenn 55,639 94,304 Pima 7,790 10,813
Mo 61,469 78,336 Other 0 0
Ark 92,929 146,962 Total US 727,561 2,487,453
La 47,411 117,686 pct tenderable 83.0 83.5

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 301,128
: Positions :
: 67,728 18,980 66,496 73,160 191,546 76,928 6,811 284,313 283,833: 16,815 17,295
: Changes from: October 10, 2017 (Change in open interest: 1,344) :
: -839 2,298 -2,251 3,043 -1,069 -60 617 -107 -405: 1,451 1,749
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.5 6.3 22.1 24.3 63.6 25.5 2.3 94.4 94.3: 5.6 5.7
: Total Traders: 297 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 70 95 63 74 25 11 247 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and appear to be developing a trading range. The market has not been able to fill a gap left in reaction to Irma and the losses seen in Florida as a result of the devastating storm. Futures are still reacting to t the USDA reports that showed big production loss potential from the hurricane, but not the losses expected by the trade. USDA is expected bt many to show further dramatic cuts in production in coming reports. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops are stressed from hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 158.00, 163.00, and 165.00 November. Support is at 153.00, 149.00, and 146.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 165.00, and 168.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Oct 23
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 10/14/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
10/14/2017 10/15/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 183.04 214.92 -14.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.15 6.82 4.8%
Total 190.19 221.74 -14.2%
Pack
Bulk 0.62 1.49 -58.4%
Retail/Institutional 1.19 1.50 -20.2%
Total Pack 1.81 2.99 -39.3%
Reprocessed -1.79 -2.99 -40.2%
Pack from Fruit 0.03 0.00 NA
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.09 -0.04 117.9%
Imports – Foreign 7.82 0.08 10319.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.09 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 – NA
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.01 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 189.89 213.47 -11.0%
Retail/Institutional 8.34 8.31 0.3%
Total 198.23 221.78 -10.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.25 5.59 -41.9%
Exports 0.42 0.11 265.5%
Total (Bulk) 3.67 5.70 -35.7%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.49 1.34 11.5%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.49 1.34 11.5%
Total Movement 5.16 7.04 -26.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 186.22 207.76 -10.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.85 6.97 -1.9%
Ending Inventory 193.07 214.74 -10.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
14-Oct-17 15-Oct-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 1.46 2.23 -34.6%
Retail/Institutional 2.93 2.97 -1.3%
Total Pack 4.39 5.20 -15.6%
Reprocessed -4.36 -5.20 -16.1%
Pack from Fruit 0.03 – NA
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.20 0.12 74.3%
Imports – Foreign 11.29 8.02 40.7%
Domestic Receipts 0.13 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product 0.01 – NA
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.13 – NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.05 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 193.87 217.46 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 10.13 9.75 3.8%
Total 204.00 227.22 -10.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 7.08 9.37 -24.4%
Domestic 0.57 0.33 73.4%
Exports 7.65 9.70 -21.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 3.28 2.78 18.1%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 3.28 2.78 18.1%
Total Movement 10.93 12.48 -12.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 186.22 207.76 -10.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.85 6.97 -1.9%
Ending Inventory 193.07 214.74 -10.1%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,292 :
: Positions :
: 3,671 7,575 1,164 0 0 1,642 834 125 935 313 3,145 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2017 :
: 35 118 -74 0 0 429 17 37 -118 11 -20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.6 57.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 12.4 6.3 0.9 7.0 2.4 23.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 19 16 5 0 0 10 7 5 17 7 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower on Friday on what appeared to be speculative selling. There are some forecasts for showers to begin this week that caused the selling, although the chances for beneficial rains and good coverage have been fading with each forecast update. Trends are still mostly down on the charts in New York, but an increasing amount of the trade is interested in buying the break and establishing long positions. London charts show the potential for an up trend. Ideas that the coming Brazil crop could be big remain, even through Coffee areas remain generally dry. Trees remain stressed and there are concerns that flowers are being aborted. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. There are still reports of defoliation to trees, and that does not support ideas of big production potential down the road.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.866 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 119.79 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers each day. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 123.00, 121.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2030, 2090, and 2090 November. Support is at 2000, 1970, and 1960 November, and resistance is at 2040, 2060, and 2080 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 266,030
: Positions :
: 35,194 77,510 69,974 97,567 96,104 47,466 13,156 250,201 256,744: 15,829 9,286
: Changes from: October 10, 2017 (Change in open interest: 11,600) :
: -881 7,814 -1,922 9,658 2,418 2,008 2,193 8,863 10,503: 2,738 1,097
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 29.1 26.3 36.7 36.1 17.8 4.9 94.0 96.5: 6.0 3.5
: Total Traders: 494 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 158 145 146 129 113 26 15 391 359:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/17/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
122,150 68,879 62,941 4,648 7,446 3,109
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.4% 51.5% 3.8% 6.1% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 50 45 10 8 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,050 16,547 8,804 1,923 2,684 15,635
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.5% 13.5% 7.2% 1.6% 2.2% 12.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 29 18 11 9 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,101 4,985
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 4.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in both markets in range trading. Weekly charts also show trading ranges, and the market is showing little volume and little reason to go anywhere. Traders remain generally bearish on ideas of strong world production and lackluster demand.. There was some talk of Far East demand that is now being filled by India and the Middle East due to higher prices from Thailand. But there does not seem to be any big demand coming from any real direction, especially as China has cut back on imports. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production. Brazil has turned dry after recent rains, and more rain is needed after the dry Winter. Some showers could appear early this week. China has had some variable weather that could cut production, but still has plenty of Sugar in storage. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm temperatures and scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 359.00, and 354.00 December, and resistance is at 377.00, 380.00, and 384.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 795,152
: Positions :
: 120,394 232,599 141,194 253,275 336,513 212,096 14,917 726,960 725,223: 68,192 69,929
: Changes from: October 10, 2017 (Change in open interest: -738) :
: -4,494 8,110 -7,455 3,355 -3,840 4,395 1,018 -4,198 -2,166: 3,459 1,428
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 29.3 17.8 31.9 42.3 26.7 1.9 91.4 91.2: 8.6 8.8
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 73 73 74 70 24 13 198 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/17/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
86,429 50,631 43,927 9,159 11,487 1,789
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.6% 50.8% 10.6% 13.3% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 53 45 12 7 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,610 17,589 3,254 3,541 464 3,091
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.4% 20.4% 3.8% 4.1% 0.5% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 26 12 9 4 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,355 4,828
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 5.6%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a Little lower on Friday, but higher for the week in response to positive demand news from as the North American grind data last week and the European grind data the previous week. The North American data did show an increase in demand, but not as much as some traders had hoped for. The trends are now up in New York and in London on both the daily and weekly charts, although the weekly charts show that some important resistance is just ahead at about 2180 New York December. Traders saw positive grind data from Asia on Friday. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast expects a very good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.263 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2220, 2280, and 2370 December. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 December, with resistance at 2160, 2210, and 2230 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 December, with resistance at 1600, 1630, and 1650 December.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Oct 20
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for October 20, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 360 2,492.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 268 2,399.50
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 198 2,329.50
Ecuador 195 2,327.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 230 2,362.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.91 6,193.46
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.75 1,600.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 287,874
: Positions :
: 51,930 70,194 54,976 126,248 135,160 38,033 17,276 271,187 277,606: 16,686 10,268
: Changes from: October 10, 2017 (Change in open interest: 6,181) :
: 1,022 -1,849 1,843 1,429 5,220 1,299 118 5,593 5,332: 588 850
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.0 24.4 19.1 43.9 47.0 13.2 6.0 94.2 96.4: 5.8 3.6
: Total Traders: 272 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 90 90 48 41 24 7 219 181:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/17/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
328,264 209,427 200,242 16,397 19,707 23,220
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.8% 61.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 47 44 14 9 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,565 33,660 21,618 4,828 172 25,550
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 10.3% 6.6% 1.5% 0.1% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 27 14 16 4 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,661 4,096
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 1.2%

DJ Asian Cocoa Grinding Up 13% in 3Q
By Lucy Craymer
Asian cocoa grinding in the third quarter rose 13% from the same period last year to 189,407 metric tons, according to figures issued by the Cocoa Association of Asia on Friday.
Compared with the second quarter, grinding were up 18%, the data showed.
Grinding refer to the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate and are often used as a proxy for chocolate demand.
The data reflect the compilation of grinding from Malaysia as well as from Cocoa Association of Asia members in Singapore and Indonesia.
The North American National Confectioners Association processed 0.7% more beans in the third quarter, according to data released at the close of trading in the U.S. Thursday. European processing volumes of raw cocoa beans rose 3% in the third quarter year-over-year, slightly outperforming industry expectations, according to data released last week by the European Cocoa Association.

UPDATE 1-North American Q3 cocoa grind at 3-year top but below expectations – Reuters News
19-Oct-2017 04:22:25 PM
Adds milestone, expectations to paragraph 1, background
NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) – North American cocoa grinding rose to a three-year high in the third quarter of 2017, data from the National Confectioners Association (NCA) showed on Thursday, but the increase was below expectations.
Cocoa processors in the United States, Canada and Mexico reported grinding 125,263 tonnes of beans from July through September, the highest since 2014 and up 0.68 percent from the third quarter of 2016, NCA data showed.
Traders’ estimates ahead of the data called for grinding to be up 2 percent to 3 percent versus the third quarter 2016. The slightly higher data for North America followed a 3 percent rise in Europe to a six-year high at 353,544 tonnes. (Full Story)
Cocoa grinding reflects demand for chocolate’s key ingredient and quarterly data for cocoa processing in Asia is due on Friday, with expectations ranging from 8 to 10 percent higher.
During the third quarter, New York cocoa futures prices CCc1 rose 7.4 percent, the strongest quarterly gain in more than two years that lifted prices above a 10-year low reached in June as expectations shifted to less plentiful supplies in the 2017/18 crop year.
London futures LCCc1, however, closed the third quarter down 1.1 percent, marking the fifth straight weak quarter as the firm British pound GBP= pressured prices of the sterling-denominated market.
The nine companies that took part in the North American survey are: Barry Callebaut AG BARN.S, Bloomer Chocolate Co, Cargill Cocoa & Chocolate Co, ECOM, Ghirardelli Chocolate Co, Guittard Chocolate Co, Hershey Co HSY.N, Mars Wrigley Confectionery and Nestle SA NESN.S.
(Reporting by Marcy Nicholson; Editing by James Dalgleish)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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