rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Blue Line Morning Express (Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, S&P)


Bookmark and Share

Blue Line Express

Sign up for a FREE trial of the Blue Line Express!

Email Bill@BlueLineFutures.com

You can also reach us at 312-278-0500

We update our research throughout the trading day so be sure to visit the research page on our site!www.BlueLineFutures.com

E-mini S&P (December)

Last weeks close:The S&P finished the week at 2475.50, half a point from its new all-time high. This is its seventh positive weekly close in a row.

Fundamentals:It is a quiet but surely positive start to the week with the S&P edging higher and being led by Japan and Europe. The Nikkei is up more than 1% after Prime Minister Abes party won a super-majority over the weekend; though expected, a relief nonetheless as it reaffirms his ultra-loose monetary policy. The DAX is up about .5% this morning and all of Europe is in the green as there is no fresh news on the Spanish front, however, fears of a Catalonian contagion remain low. U.S equity markets finished the week strongly after reversing well from the lows on Thursdays session. This was in part the result of an upbeat conversation between Yellen and President Trump that left current Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell emerging as the lead candidate to replace her. Equities saw further support due to the Senate passing a 2018 budget blueprint which now paves the way for tax-reform. Data is quiet to start the week, we have Chicago National Fed Activity due at 7:30 am CT. Manufacturing data comes into the picture tomorrow. Kimberly Clark, Halliburton and Hasbro among others have earnings before the bell.

Technicals:Global equity markets remain very strong and have produced a tape not worth fighting. The overnight high comes in at 2577.25 and price action is consolidating above Fridays initial high of 2571.75 with a session low to start the week of 2572. The S&P faces resistance at 2581.75, a level in which we referenced on Friday as the next upside target before a retreat can become more likely. First major support now comes in at the previous upside target level at 2558.50-2562.25 and just as we spoke about 2439.25-2443 support last week; if you are not already long or have not capitalized on this breakout above 2507.75 then it is in your best interest to wait for a retest to support at 2558.50-2562.25 at minimum before stepping in.

Bias:Bullish/Neutral

Resistance 2581.75**, 2595-2600**

Pivot - 2571.75-2474

Support 2558.50-2562.25**, 2439.25-2443**, 2507.75***

Crude Oil (December)

Last weeks close:Crude reversed sharply from its Thursday night / Friday morning low and settled nearly a dollar off the session low of 50.87 at 51.84 but traded to a high of 52.09.

Fundamentals:The market recovered well on Friday as uncertainty in Iraq still loomed ahead of the weekend. Fighting in the Kurdistan Region pushes on and exports to the Turkish port Ceyhan are still more than cut in half from the 600,000 bpd level. Data on Friday from Baker Hughes showed a drop in rigs for the third week in a row to 726 from 743 as the aftermath of the hurricane season can still be felt. All in all, prices moved through the overnight session high around noon CT following this data and ahead of the weekend.

Technicals:Price action moved back above resistance at 51.51-51.79 on Friday completely neutralizing the early weakness. We advised on Friday that the tape had potentially turned bearish, however, did not suggest selling until we got a confirmation on the close; this did not happen. Session highs come in at 52.30 and we are seeing another rejection and lower high against the three-tiered resistance that begins at 52.41; this also now aligns with a trend line resistance that starts back on September 28th and runs against last weeks swing highs. The market is in a clear consolidation as trend line support from August 31st aligns with the 200-day moving average at 50.51-50.69; this level encouraged buyers to step in on Fridays session.

Bias:Neutral

Resistance 52.41**, 52.86**, 53.11***, 53.76*, 55.02***

Support 51.51-51.79*, 50.51-50.69**, 50.04**, 49.44***, 48.65**

Gold (December)

Last weeks close:Gold held support by a thread to close out the week at 1280.5.

Fundamentals: The Dollar Index has continued to strengthen into this morning as we may have some clarity, at least for now, in Washington. News on Thursday night that the Senate had passed a budget plan reinvigorated the selling in the metal. Gold had garnered a positive tone through Thursdays session after Fed insider Jerome Powell emerged as the lead candidate to replace Yellen. It is now up to the House to move the budget through this week which will pave the way for tax-reform. Chicago Fed National Activity is due at 7:30 am CT and we have Manufacturing data tomorrow.

Technicals:Gold is trading lower this morning and through key support at 1277.6-1281.6. The session low comes in at 1275.2 and right now it would seem that the door is open for further pressure to take it down to major four-star support at 1262.8-1269. The Dollar Index clearly closed out above its 200-week moving average near the 93 mark, a level that we have been watching to give an edge to the Gold trade.

Bias:Neutral

Resistance 1289.4**, 1293**, 1298.4-1302.7**, 1308.4-1312.6**

Support 1277.6-1281.2**, 1262.8-1269***, 1243.6**

Natural Gas (December)

Last weeks close:December Natty had a quiet finish to Fridays session at 3.113 but opened this week with a bang.

Fundamentals:Winter is right around the corner and cooler temperatures this weekend and on the 10-day forecast from what was initially expected have contributed to a strong gap open Sunday night. Furthermore, weather models signal that we could be in store for a cold winter. Remember, storage remains below the 5-year trend and if builds begin to dip off this week and next week we could see a meteoric-like rise in prices coupled with last weeks technical rejection. The U.S has become a net-exporter of Natural Gas and has done so for 20 straight days now, the longest streak on record.

Technicals:Thursdays technical rejection was a tremendous setup for the bull camp and the follow through showed up last night. December traded to a high of 3.198 and took out the October 13th high, however, the expiring November is up more on the session but failed to take out this days high; a move above 3.036 in the November this week would be very bullish. Resistance in the December contract comes in at 3.16-3.1825 and this level has kept price action in check, but the retreat from the gap open has been very constructive into this morning as a low of 3.127 covered the gap and prices have edged back north. We are bullish but we must see the chart remain constructive; a close below 3.113-3.127 today could negate short-term bullishness.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 3.16-3.1825**, 3.22**, 3.33-3.36***

Support 3.113-3.127**, 3.065-3.074*, 3.012-3.042***, 2.753-2.7565***, 2.486-2.522****

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Express

Sign up for a FREE trial of the Blue Line Express!

Email Bill@BlueLineFutures.com

You can also reach us at 312-278-0500

We update our research throughout the trading day so be sure to visit our research page on our site!www.BlueLineFutures.com

Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures

Follow us on Facebook:Blue Line Futures Facebook page

Subscribe to our YouTube channel:Blue Line Futures YouTube channel

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2018 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy