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Far More Risk


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite


Here is the only trading suggestion I offered today to my subscribers and brokerage clients. Note that I sent the Email while the grain complex was closed but ready to re-open for trade. I specifically suggested the following:


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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


One of my favorite private research groups, Informa is forecasting new crop corn acres for 2018 to fall 1.42 million but soybean acres to rise 1.29. Both guesses are from the September estimate. It would seem that soybean prices could, should or may lose ground to corn prices moving forward.


The spread between March, 2018 soybean futures and March, 2018 corn based on yesterdays close is $6.47 a bushel. The spread has not been any wider that $6.50 on a closing basis. In June, the spread was as narrow as $5.35 and in mid-August around $5.60.


As a new trade. Buy (1) March 2019 corn and sell (1) March 2018 soybean at the market. Use $6.51 stop, close only. In theory, the risk on this spread is about 5 cents.


The time is 8:12 a.m. Chicago with the grains expected to re-open in a few minutes.

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Not until March will be have a rough idea about the new crop acreage mix. In the world of futures trading March is an eternity away. Still, my work has suggested for some time that moving forward, the downside potential for soybeans is far greater than the downside for corn. Thus, I was willing to offer the bold suggestion to buy corn and soybeans for positions in 2018.


However, note that the trade mentioned above is now sitting on nothing less than 10 cents profit. And that is enough for me to move stops down on that trade so it does not turn into a bummer. In other words, if you chose to follow my advice, you are kinda late to the party and subject to far more risk than my subscribers and brokerage clients. Far more.

The time is 1:06 p.m. Chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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