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Sugar prices expected to fall towards 13$


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Sugar price has been falling since October of 2016 when it was trading around 22$. Price has been in a long-term bearish trend since then making lower lows and lower highs. The form of the decline as shown in the weekly chart below implies that according to Elliott wave Theory, the most probable scenario, according to me, is that we have finished waves 1,2 and 3, while we are currently in a wave 4 triangle pattern. Triangle patterns usually precede the final wave of a trend as is this case. So wave 5 should unfold by breaking the triangle lower.

Sugar Weekly

The lower triangle boundary that needs to break in order to have a confirmation of our bearish scenario is at 13.40$. Our first target is at 11$ if this scenario is correct. In the shorter-term we can see another triangle pattern being formed while Sugar futures prices are trapped between 14.50$ and 14$.

SugarThe base of the triangle is nearly 1$ so a break below 14$ will open the way for an equal decline towards 13$ or even lower. I lean on the bearish side of this market and expect the triangle to break downwards. Breaking above 14.50$ will cancel this short-term view.

Thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.



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About the author


Alexandros has been actively trading for more than 15 years. After successfully completing his MSC degree in International Securities Investment and Banking in one of the top European Business Schools,

he became a certified derivatives trader in the Greek Stock market. Shortly after he started working on the fx and international securities desk of a brokerage company,

while passing his exams to become a Portfolio Manager. He is now working as head of the Portfolio Management team in one of the Greece's top brokers,

trading in the Greek and international exchanges.  Alexandros has also been running his own personal website www.trading2day.com,

providing analysis for more than 5 years and has been active on twitter sharing his views in real time to his more than 4000 followers.

Alexandros is also working as a daily analyst for Gold and the Dollar index for InstaForex Company.   His main tools are Ichimoku clouds,

classical technical analysis and Elliott waves, while scanning 4hour, daily and weekly charts.

 

Contributing author since 10/10/2017 

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