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AgMaster Report 10/19/17

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Since Labor Day, Nov Beans have languished in a 50-cent range (940-985) – with offsetting fundamentals keeping it under wraps! (HARVEST, EXPORTS, SOUTH AMERICA, US DOLLAR, USDA REPORTS) – that is until last Thur when a basically neutral USDA crop report ignited the mkt upside & to its highest close since early August! Has the worm turned?



  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,770,324 MMT (1.1 – 1.4) – Fri sales Were 1.75 MMT (600 – 2.0)

Oct 16 –           227,300 MT       Unk

Oct 11 –           264,000 MT       China

Oct 11 –           132,000 MT       Mexico

Oct 10-             131,000 MT      China

  • USDA REPORT – 10/12/17

Bean Prod –      4.431 BB  (Est-4.439, Sept – 4.431)

Yield                  49.5 B/A   (Est – 49.8, Sept – 49.9)

US Stocks          430 MB    (Est –  453,  Sept – 475)

Global                96.1 MMT (Est – 96.5, Sept – 97.5)

The yield reduction leading to an unchanged # from Sept – was Friendly & refuted the old notion that “BIG CROPS GET BIGGER”!

  • HARV PROGRESS – % Done –  49(LW – 36, Avg – 60)

Ill – 63 (58)   Ind – 52 (52)     Iowa – 32 (66)

  • SOUTH AMERICA – too dry in the North & too wet in the South Has hampered their planting efforts
  • TECHNICAL UPSIDE BREAK-OUT – on a neutral report – no less – Is very impressive & led to the highest weekly close since Aug 1

Big Crops don’t always get bigger – especially with the Sept dryness we’ve had – the USDA Oct Report is a solid testimonial to that! It seems to validate that “harvest lows” were put in Mid-Aug & that the record crop is dialed in!


The corn #’s on the OCT CROP REPORT were more on the negative side with production, yields & carry-out all slightly higher than expected & higher than last month! However, the initial spike-down was met with solid buying & turned into a key reversal upside & a higher weekly close!  Indeed, spillover support from Nov Beans helped pull Dec Corn higher!



  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 322,672 MT (600-800) – Fri sales were 1.6 MMT (700- 1.7)!

Oct 12 –        120,000 MT      Mexico

Oct 11 –        150,000 MT      Mexico

  • USDA REPORT – 10/12/17

Corn Prod –    14,280 BB (Est – 14,168,  Sept – 14,184)

Yield          –     171.8 B/A (Est –  169.7,    Sept – 168.6)

US Stocks  –     2,340 MB (Est –  2,249,    Sept – 2,325)

Global        –     201 MMT (Est –  201.5,    Sept  – 202.5)

The #’s were on the high side but have been bandied about for Several months and it could easily be argued that they are Already factored in!

  • HARV PROGRESS – % Done  –   28  (LW-22   Avg – 47)

Ill –  47 (Avg – 64)    Ind  – 36 (Avg – 46)  Iowa- 13 (Avg – 41)

  • SOUTH AMERICA – early pltg issues have helped to support the mkt
  • TECHNICAL ACTION – while Nov Beans broke out upside, Dec Corn

Momentarily penetrated the low end of its range before rallying Back into Mid-range – on the coattails of Nov Bean’s surge

The 14.280 BB crop is the 3rd biggest ever but the # may not get any bigger as later yields aren’t as good as early ones –plus harvest delays might cause some yield loss!


Dec Wht is bound in a tight range (430-460) – just off contract lows! The contract lately has no friends – as bearish influences abound – big harvest pressure in corn beans, world ending stocks at a record level – again & a negative USDA Oct Crop Rep!


  • For the 3rd consecutive year, we have record world stocks
  • The USDA is corroborating same – reporting 17-18 carry-out at 268 MMT (Est – 262, Sept – 263)
  • Sovecon has raised the Russian wht crop by 2.2% to 82.9 MMT
  • Big crops in Eastern Europe, the Black Sea Region & India have helped

Global stocks at record levels Dec Wht needs a weather issue somewhere to rally!


Despite a record increase in 3rd -4th Qtr production, solid domestic & export demand has rallied Dec Cat $12 (107-119).  Since Mid-Aug to a point where the mkt is at a $7-8 premium to cash – twice what it normally is!  So, the mkt is currently overbought & focusing on an Oct COF Report this Friday – promising a placement # of 7% over 2016! So maybe a correction in the uptrend before the report!



Much like its sister mkt Dec Cat, Dec Hogs were able to launch a substantial rally – albeit in the face of mounting production – thanks to healthy domestic & export demand!  The Dec Cat rally (107-119) started in Mid-Aug – while the Dec Hog rally (56-64) started in Mid-Sept!


!) 3rd-4th Qtr Production to be up 790 MP – 10 yr high & 2nd highest on rec

2) 4th Qtr production is to be up 5.8% over 2016

3) The improbable rally pushed Dec Hogs to a $5.45 premium to cash –

When normally it’s a $6.50 discount

The situation is ameliorated by the fact that 4th-1st Qtr Production is Expected to be less than


Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337


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About the author

Mr. Moore’s commodity career unwittingly began when he was 5 years old, spending his summers working for his family farm near Quincy, IL.

Bill attended Cornell University, graduating with a degree in Civil Engineering and then studied at the University of Chicago for his MBA. Soon after graduation, he entered into the United States Marine Corps.

In 1975, Bill began working at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an Agricultural Specialist – trading corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs. In 2000, he moved to the Chicago Board of Trade to work for a futures brokerage firm. Then, in early 2011, he brought his business to The PRICE Futures Group where he deals exclusively with 1000 acre grain farmers, helping them to design their seasonal corn and bean hedging programs.

Contact William Moore: (800) 769-7021 or at

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