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Hogs Hit An Important High Today


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Two days ago I suggested selling short the Nasdaq E-mini with a fill of 6110.00. As I type furiously away, the last for that contract is 6076.00, down 43.25. My stop has been lowered so the trade does not turn into a bummer.


The Russell 2000 E-mini is 11.10 lower at 1495.30. The Dow is only 37 lower at 23,077. But the last time the Russell 2000 was right here, the Dow was under 22,500. I would bet something has to give. Either the Russell has to rally or the Dow has to decline. Or, a combinaton of both. My lean is the Dow headed lower.


I suggested in a Special Email Alert to my subscribers and brokerage clients to sell short December lean hogs this morning and the fill was $64.47 give or take a bit. Here is what I specifically suggested:

_________________________________________________


SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


Sell (1) December lean hog at the market. The last is $64.47 with a high of $64.65. Do not sell anymore contracts unless December hits $64.90. Sell (1) now and wait for $64.90.

The time is 9:32 a.m. Chicago


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My lean remains that of a bear. I see no market anywhere to play on the long side of the ledger here in the final quarter of the year. My advice is to sell rallies everywhere rather than buy breaks. But then, I have stated that bias for weeks so it is no big surprise.


Across the board today, trading is rather subdued considering what the Dow is doing here on the 30th anniversary of the Great Crash of 87. But the day is also young and subject to change.


For those that trade and watch cattle this observation is interesting. December live cattle are 40 lower at $116.25 with February trading at $120.52, down 2 points. The spread between the two contracts is $4.32. A close here or greater places the difference at new, wide bear ground for the spread. The spread difference is suggesting front month cattle are poised to do a nose dive.


Lean hog futures posted an important high today and values could be lower to sharply lower today. Tomorrow the market will likely be in trouble. Cattle, if the bear spread is to be believed is also hanging by a thread along with the oinkers. Time will tell.


The time is 11:35 a.m. Chicago




The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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