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The 30th Anniversary of the Great Crash of '87


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

From CNBC news this morning with a headline that reads: "Three decades later, watching for signs of another '87-style market cataclysm"

  • Thursday marks the 30th anniversary of the day the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 22.6 percent, the worst single session in Wall Street history.

  • It was no bolt from the blue. Stocks were caught in a grueling, treacherous decline in the months leading up to the crash.

Yes, indeed, today October 19, 2017 marks the 30th anniversary of Black Monday. Also known as the Great Crash of '87.


And from my book, Back To The Futures, recounting the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities during the 1980s here is what I wrote in a chapter titled, Black Monday.


October 19, 1987 will forever be known as Black Monday. It was the darkest day in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and for all other stock exchanges located throughout the world.


In the past few issue of Commodity Insight, I have suggested that traders buy the March T-Notes and sell the March NYFE Composite at a ratio of 2.050:1. On September 25 and 28, I entered into that spread when the notes were trading at 89.00 and the NYFE was at 183.50.

That spread cause me some anxiety for a few days but then turned in my favor. At this time, the profits on that trade are in excess of $33,000 per spread. Nimble traders on the other hand should have profits of nearly $37,000 per spread.


When I first suggested that trade, I said that the Dow Jones should be near the 1900 level based on the price of bonds. At this writing, the Dow close at 1738. In other words, all my downside objectives for the Dow have been achieved. It's time to take the money and run!


Black Monday was a very hectic and exhausting day. It was also a very profitable one. I came into the day short and hedged in cattle, wheat and stock indices and long the debt markets such as T-Notes and bonds. It cannot get much better than that.


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This morning as I type furiously away the Dow is 97 lower at 23,019 with a low of 22,951. Bonds are up 14 points.

Can history repeat itself? It generally does!

And the time is 7:07 a.m. Chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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