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Still No Desire To Be Long


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Yesterday, here on Inside Futures I stated clearly: I remain firmly entrenched in the camp of the bears for the final quarter of this year. I do not see a single market I would play from the long side of the ledger. Not a one.


This morning, though the session is young, there are a few markets on the plus and those that are higher, the gains are quite limited. Soybean prices are fractionally higher, hog futures up 105 points and cocoa and sugar are up a tad. Otherwise, most all other commodities are in the red. For all intents, the day is bearish with virtually all markets lower and struggling.


In the US debt markets, the 2 year Treasury notes are sharply lower and into a new, 9 year low. Treasury bonds down a whopping 1 full point and 4 ticks. And the best market today remains the Dow with futures up 120 points. However, the Nasdaq is lower and posting a downside key and the S&P is clinging to a tiny 71.25 point gain. Should the S&P or any other index close lower downside key reversals will be formed. .


My point is this. With the Fed on the cusp of hiking rates in an effort to keep inflation from rearing its ugly head, the odds are high that further weakness with all market is great. Thus, I have no desire to be long any any market whatsoever. Not a one!


Also keep this in mind. The fundamentals bearish the debt markets, are not necessarily bullish the equity markets. And that is why the sharp decline today being seen with the 2 year notes and the Treasury bonds is so bearish for all markets.


Over the past few sessions, I have touted the short side of the cattle market. Shorts placed last week and this week are doing well. Then again, the day is young and subject to change. But as I type furiously away, live cattle are 60 lower with feeders off 125 points. The day is clearly bearish and a close here or lower bodes ill for tomorrow.


Last week and this week, my lean has been to sell December cattle but buy June cattle as a spread. A bear spread. Right now, the spread between the two market is $1.70 to the December. I favor that spread right now. Right now!


The time is 10:24 a.m. Chicago



The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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