rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Morning Softs Report 10/16/17


Bookmark and Share

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on Friday, but lower for the week in reaction to the USDA reports and harvest progress. The USDA reports showed big production and big ending stocks on Thursday, and the export sales report was not real strong on Friday. The weekly charts show down trends and the potential for futures to test strong support near 6500 December. Ideas are that the recent weather has been good for maturing crops and harvest activities. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry. The weekly classing report shows that quality is holding after showing somewhat lower quality in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.69 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,584 bales, from 6,674 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6770, 6740, and 6700 December, with resistance of 6900, 6930, and 6940 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 10, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 299,784
: Positions :
: 68,567 16,681 68,748 70,117 192,614 76,989 6,194 284,421 284,238: 15,363 15,546
: Changes from: October 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: -1,949) :
: -965 -1,915 360 -2,133 -988 -419 478 -3,157 -2,065: 1,208 116
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.9 5.6 22.9 23.4 64.3 25.7 2.1 94.9 94.8: 5.1 5.2
: Total Traders: 299 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 64 96 63 72 26 11 254 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Oct 13
Data quoted in bales for week ending Oct 12. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 91,146 91,146 Southwest 123,805 1,334,003
NC 15,011 20,584 Okla – –
SC 14,460 18,234 Texas 123,805 1,334,003
Ga 51,393 62,325 Kansas – –
Ala 10,282 12,236
Fla* – – Far West 11545 29023
Va – – NM – –
Ariz 6,850 24,209
Delta 196716 280,605 Calif 4,695 4,814
Miss 69,823 100,764
Tenn 34,102 38,665 Pima 3,023 3,023
Mo 15,785 16,868 Other 0 0
Ark 38,243 54,033 Total US 426,235 1,760,033
La 38,763 70,275 pct tenderable 81.0 83.7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again on Friday on follow through selling as the market digested the USDA reports showing much less production, but not the losses that had been feared by th trade. Florida sources told wire services they expect USDA to show further dramatic cuts in production in coming reports, but the reports showed that there will be some oranges for processing. Chart trends turned up with the price action early last week, then the market closed the week lower and near some important support areas on the weekly charts. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 144.00 and 135.00 November. Support is at 150.00, 146.00, and 142.00 November, with resistance at 155.00, 160.00, and 165.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 10, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,247 :
: Positions :
: 3,636 7,457 1,238 0 0 1,213 817 88 1,053 302 3,165 :
: Changes from: October 3, 2017 :
: -282 571 -68 0 0 44 -218 8 130 -22 527 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.4 56.3 9.3 0.0 0.0 9.2 6.2 0.7 7.9 2.3 23.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 74 :
: 21 17 5 0 0 11 6 4 17 9 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed a little higher in quiet trading. Ideas that the coming Brazil crop could be big remain. The rains seen a couple of weeks ago in Brazil has promoted flowering for the next crop, and the flowing seems to be very good. However, it is dry again now and there are no real forecasts for a wet period for the next week or two weeks as a high pressure ridge has moved into the northern part of the country. The high could move away by the end of the month. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. There are still reports of defoliation to trees, and that does not support ideas of big production potential down the road. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.850 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.01 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but as few light showers are possible over the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00 and 136.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 November, and resistance is at 2030, 2040, and 2060 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 10, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 254,430
: Positions :
: 36,075 69,696 71,895 87,909 93,686 45,459 10,963 241,338 246,241: 13,092 8,189
: Changes from: October 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: 6,945) :
: 484 3,066 3,652 947 -2,428 2,128 2,410 7,211 6,699: -266 246
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 27.4 28.3 34.6 36.8 17.9 4.3 94.9 96.8: 5.1 3.2
: Total Traders: 493 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 149 149 151 131 119 25 15 385 371:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/10/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
122,197 69,197 64,491 4,476 8,233 2,741
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.6% 52.8% 3.7% 6.7% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 51 46 11 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,247 16,399 8,473 1,829 1,891 14,928
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.5% 13.4% 6.9% 1.5% 1.5% 12.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 27 17 11 10 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,306 5,041
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 4.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were mostly higher again in both New York and in London. London December was lower, but all other months were higher. The market has been holding support, but has not given any buy signal on the daily charts. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production. Brazil has turned dry after recent rains, and more rain is needed after the dry Winter. The Sugar areas look to stay dry and very warm for the next two weeks, but there are forecasts for weather trends to change by the end of the mon th that could give Sugar areas better rains at that time. The market is thinking more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are mostly sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 368.00, 359.00, and 354.00 December, and resistance is at 380.00, 384.00, and 391.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 10, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 795,890
: Positions :
: 124,888 224,489 148,648 249,920 340,352 207,701 13,900 731,158 727,389: 64,733 68,501
: Changes from: October 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: 18,662) :
: 1,414 -666 17,639 -564 86 -1,451 750 17,038 17,809: 1,625 853
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 28.2 18.7 31.4 42.8 26.1 1.7 91.9 91.4: 8.1 8.6
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 75 76 76 71 24 12 203 198:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/10/2017
Reportable Positions
=============================================================================== Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
83,926 46,231 40,397 8,911 11,549 1,595
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.1% 48.1% 10.6% 13.8% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 51 45 12 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,247 17,619 3,428 3,139 345 3,524
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 21.0% 4.1% 3.7% 0.4% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 25 11 7 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,852 5,470
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 6.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher on improved demand ideas. The trends turned up again with the price action last week, and traders will hope for similar gains in the grind in North America and Asia. That data should be released this week.. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast expects a very good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. Prices paid to producers have been improving due to the good quality of the crop The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers and as world economies are improving.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.381 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2220 December. Support is at 2060, 2000, and 1990 December, with resistance at 2120, 2130, and 2150 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 December, with resistance at 1590, 1620, and 1650 December.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Oct 13
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for October 13, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 350 2,449.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 260 2,359.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 205 2,304.00
Ecuador 150 2,249.00
Sanchez f.a.q. NA
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter NA
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.79 1,650.00
CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications for Oct 6
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for October 6, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 360 2,453.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 265 2,358.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 205 2,298.00
Ecuador 195 2,288.00
Sanchez f.a.q. NA
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.87 6,006.91
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat NA

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 10, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 281,692
: Positions :
: 50,907 72,043 53,134 124,820 129,940 36,734 17,158 265,594 272,275: 16,098 9,418
: Changes from: October 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: -7,350) :
: 2,586 -2,655 -4,528 -2,881 714 -961 -387 -5,784 -6,856: -1,566 -494
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.1 25.6 18.9 44.3 46.1 13.0 6.1 94.3 96.7: 5.7 3.3
: Total Traders: 273 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 96 90 50 42 23 7 219 183:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/10/2017
Reportable Positions
=============================================================================== Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
330,315 209,332 195,717 17,787 22,059 22,477
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.4% 59.3% 5.4% 6.7% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 49 47 15 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,810 36,218 21,718 4,356 186 27,802
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 11.0% 6.6% 1.3% 0.1% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 29 16 14 6 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,033 4,138
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.3%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Softs Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2018 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy