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What Counts Is Where Prices Close.


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

What counts in the futures market is where prices close, not where they trade intra-day. But today is indeed interesting because as I type furiously away, a few equity markets are posting downside key reversals after being impressively higher earlier in the session. Here is what I am referring to.


** The S&P and the Nasdaq posted new all time highs today but are now in the red. The Russell 2000 closed Friday, at a 10 day low and is in the red once more. Only the Dow is showing a gain with futures up 21 points.


Earlier today, I suggested the following in my twice a day newsletter sent to subscribers and brokerage clients.


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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


SELL (1) December EMini Nasdaq at the market. The range today is 6118.25 to 6099.00 with a last of 6108.00 up 8.20. Use 6118.00 stop, close only.


Stock may post a downside k-r today. Sell the Nasdaq here and use a stop as outlined above. If the market does not close lower, I will suggest to exit on the close.

The time is 9:25 a.m. Chicago

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In the past few minutes I also suggested to move buy stops on shorts in the Nasdaq down to levels where the trade does not turn into a bummer. My stops are tight but with the Russell and the S&P still in the red and posting downside key reversals, I will hold short in the Nasdaq into the close.


Keep a close eye on the December Russell 2000 mini. If it drops below the 1500.00 level, it may drop like mad. The low today is 1501.10 with a last of 1501.60. That particular stock index has been a leading indicator for other indexes this year and it has shown independent weakness for two weeks now. An omen moving forward? Time will tell.


One final thought. Palladium hit a 16 year high today and is now in the red posting a sharp downside k-r. I would avoid the long side of all metals based on what palladium is doing. Then again, I would avoid the long side of all markets here in the 4th quarter of the year!


One last thought. What counts is where prices close, not where they trade intra-day.

The time is 11:34 a.m. Chicago



The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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