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Sensitive Intra-Day Indicator


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Here are some of my morning grain comments in my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite.


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Regarding the USDA report from yesterday. The corn data was quite bearish in my humble opinion. But the soybean data was bullish showing harvested acres at 800,000 when I expected 1.1 million. Yields were lowered by .04 per bushel but I expected yields to be raised by .01 per bushel from the last report. Plus, the USDA overestimated last years soy crop by 1 million bushels. Thus, the soy data was bullish and my guess about the report being bearish was wrong.

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But some of my sensitive intra-day indicators began suggesting that soybeans may soon lose ground to KC wheat. Thus, I broadcast the following Special Email Alert around 11:17 a.m. Chicago time. Here is what I specifically suggested.

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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


I have not suggested a new trade in the grain complex in over a month. For me, that is quite rare. But I am going to suggest a new trade right now. As a new trade, buy(1)March KC wheat and sell (1) March soybean at the market. Right now, the wheat is 4 higher at $4.481/2 and March beans $10.17, up 5 cents for a spread of $5.68 or so to the soybeans. Use 7 cent stop, close only.


The time is 11:17 a.m Chicago

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As I type furiously away, March soybeans are up 7 and KC wheat is up 9 cents. Oh, my!

the time now is 1:16 p.m. chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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