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Not Impressed.


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

A few minutes ago, I sent the following Special Email Alert to my subscribers and brokerage clients. Note the time sent.


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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


This mornings USDA grain report was bullish soybeans thanks to a lower yield estimate based on expectations and lower stocks based on expectations. Right now, soybeans are up 20 higher but 12 off the low.

However, the USDA increased corn yields 2 bushels and acre and increased stocks. Wheat stocks were raised as well. The data was bearish but corn is 3 higher and 5 off the high. Wheat is 2 to 3 lower and 6 off the high. The data from the report is bearish corn and wheat.


Even with soybean prices up 20 cents, I am not that impressive with the grains. But I am more neutral grains now that I have digested the USDA data. And based on that data, I said earlier when soybeans were up 29 cents it would not surprise me if the market was lower by the close.

In the livestock complex, front month cattle are 145 and 122 lower with hogs off 100 points and feeders lower by 160 points. Come out of today, short the critters. The highs are likely in place and the coming weakness will be swift and deep. Hopefully, some of you got short December hogs over $63 as I mentioned earlier today. The high today was $63.12 with the last $61.47.

Come out of today, short cattle, hogs and feeders. Keep selling rallies. The odds are high that the critters have peaked out and the coming weakness will be led by cattle.


Looking across the entire board this afternoon and despite soybeans being higher, I remain convinced that in the 4th Quarter, there will be far more markets crashing and burning than trending higher.


The time is 12:30 p.m. Chicago

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I am not impressed by any market today, that is higher. Not a one. Not a one!


The time is 12:39 p.m. Chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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